Before the Vote - Forecasting American National Elections

Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.

Table des matières

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION
Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand
PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Polls and Votes - James E Campbell
The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns
Bill and Al¿s Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz
Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election
Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth
A Forecast for 1996
The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien
Prospective Presidential Models
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson
Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook
A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections
Election Forecasting - Brad Lockerbie
A Look to the Future
Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years - Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman
1952-1992 and 1996
PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING
Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election - Nathaniel Beck
The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections - James E Campbell

Résumé

Presents leading political scientists' forecasts of the 1996 US presidential election, and methodological analysis.

Détails du produit

• Auteurs: James E. Campbell, James Garand
• Collaboration: James E. Campbell (Editeur), Campbell James E. (Editeur), James C. Garand (Editeur), Garand James C. (Editeur)
• Edition: Sage Publications
• Langues: Anglais
• Format d'édition: Livre Relié
• Sortie: 07.02.2000
• EAN: 9780761916369
• ISBN: 978-0-7619-1636-9
• Pages: 232
• Poids: 450 g
• Catégories: Sciences sociales, droit, économie > Médias, communication > Général, dictionnaires; Kommunikationswissenschaft, USA, Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika, USA, Politische Strukturen und Prozesse, LANGUAGE ARTS & DISCIPLINES / Communication Studies, POLITICAL SCIENCE / American Government / General, Politics / Current Events, POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Process / Campaigns & Elections, United States of America, USA, Elections & referenda, Elections and referenda / suffrage, Television & Radio