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Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.
Table des matières
1. Growth, Decay and Structural Change.- 2. Main Results of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project.- 3. Economic Growth and Structural Change of OECD Countries.- 4. Economic Growth and Structural Change of CMEA Countries.- 5. The Macroeconomic Models of the European CMEA Countries.- 6. Economic Growth and Structural Change in Developing Countries.- 7. Growth in an Interdependent World Economy: Linking the National Models through International Trade.- 8. Modeling Exchange Rates and Foreign Trade of Developed Market Economies.- 9. Structural Change in Foreign Trade of the CMEA Countries.- 10. US Economic Growth in Retrospect and Prospect.- 11. Sectoral Output, Employment and Real Wages: Long-Run Trends for the US Economy.- 12. Long-Range Modeling of the USSR Economy.- 13. Driving Forces of Economic Structural Change: The Case of Japan in the Last Decade.- 14. A Long-Term Simulation of the French Economy.- 15. Implications of a Modernization Strategy for the United Kingdom.- 16. Prospective Structural Changes in the West German Economy.- 17. Growth of the West German Economy: Forecast by the Bonn Model 11.- 18. Strategic Planning and Economic Growth in Bulgaria.- 19. The Growth of the Polish Economy and Prospects for Structural Change.- 20. Structural Change in the Czechoslovak Economy to the Year 2000.- 21. Economic Development of the CSSR: Analysis and Conditional Forecasts.- 22. Analysis and Forecasts of Growth of the Hungarian Economy.- 23. Structural Adjustment, Productivity and Capital Accumulation in Austria.- 24. Structural Change in World Trade: Analyses and Forecasts of the FIND Model.- 25. Foreign Debt and the Structure of World Trade.- 26. The Debt Situation of the Developing Countries: A Medium-Term Scenario Analysis.- 27. Structural Change and the Long Wave.- 28.The Emergence of Service Economics.- 29. Economic Structural Changes: The Problems of Forecasting.- 30. Comparison of Gross Domestic Product and Net Material Product.- Annexes.- 1. Coding for Countries and Country Groups.- 2. Outline of the Bonn-IIASA World Model.- 3. Basic Data from Other Sources.- 4. Main Results of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project.- The Authors.
Résumé
Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.
