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Informationen zum Autor George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting . Paul Goodwin , PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS. Klappentext Das menschliche Urteilsvermögen war Gegenstand jahrelanger Forschungen zur Entscheidungsfindung und Prognose. Während anfangs der Schwerpunkt der Forschung auf der relativen Genauigkeit von urteilsmäßigen und statistischen Prognosen lag, hat sich das Interesse dahingehend verlagert, daß nun untersucht wird, wie der Urteilende zu seiner Prognose kommt und wie die Prognosegenauigkeit durch geeignete Unterstützung verbessert werden kann. Im Anschluß an ihren Vorläufer 'Judgemental Forecasting' haben Wright und Goodwin eine Reihe von Abhandlungen zusammengetragen, die von herausragenden Akademikern verfaßt wurden, sich hauptsächlich mit Prognosen befassen und ein breites, multi-disziplinäres Publikum anvisieren. Behandelt werden in leicht verständlicher Weise neue und zukünftige Probleme. (01/98) Zusammenfassung This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast. Inhaltsverzeichnis Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba).Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van der Heijden).Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information (M. O'Connor & M. Lawrence).Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin).Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey).Financial Forecasting with Judgment (D. Önkal-Atay).Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S. Curley).The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G. Rowe).How Bad Is Human Judgment?(P. Ayton).Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy).Index....
