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Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Recent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Key features and benefits
. Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biases
. Demonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysis
. Explains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing research
. Shows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Martha Whitesmith is a Visiting Research Fellow in the Department of War Studies at King's College London.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
Introduction
Part One: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
Chapter One: Intelligence and Belief Acquisition
A Taxonomy of Intelligence
How can Knowledge be Acquired?
Chapter Two: The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias
The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method
Consistency of Information as an Indicator of Truth
Diagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of Truth
Subjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of Truth
Credibility of Information as an Indicator of Truth
ACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive Bias
Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
Part Two: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective 125
Chapter Three: The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario
Procedure
Results
Discussion and Conclusions
Chapter Four: Predicting Serial Position Effects
Predicting Serial Position Effects
An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction Models
The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects
Chapter Five: Predicting Confirmation Bias
An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models
The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias
Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
Chapter 6: Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis
Appendices
References
Bibliography
Über den Autor / die Autorin
Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.
Zusammenfassung
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
