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Klappentext From Dramatic courtroom confrontations to international peace-making missions, the critical role of human judgment - complete with its failures, flaws, and successes - has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgment and its impact on events which require the direction and control of social policy. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in judgment and decision making, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainty, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for making wise judgments increases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all. Zusammenfassung This work focuses on how social policy grows out of the policymaker's judgment about what to do, what can be done, and what ought to be? Answers necessarily emerge from human judgment, and from human error and the unavoidable uncertainty in the world. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface Part I: Rivalry 1: Irreducible Uncertainty and the Need for Judgment 2: Duality of Error and Policy Formation 3: Coping with Uncertainty: The Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis Part II: Tension 4: Origins of Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Theories of Competence in Judgment and Decision Making 5: The Evolutionary Roots of Correspondence Competence Part III: Compromise 6: Reducing Rivalry Through Compromise 7: Task Structure, Cognitive Change, and Pattern Recognition 8: Reducing Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Through Constructive Complementarity Part IV: Possibilities 9: Is it possible to Learn by Intervening? ...
