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Zusatztext "...a digestible and thorough exploration of the economic and political debate." (Investment Europe! January 2014) Klappentext The euro area remains in a state of flux and appears to be unsustainable in its present form. The outcome of the crisis may be unknown for years and a judgement on the project's success or failure may be out of reach for decades.In the meantime! analysts! portfolio managers and traders will still have daily! weekly! quarterly and annual benchmarks. They will have to analyze economic developments in the euro area and their impacts on financial assets. The objective of this book is to provide a framework for that analysis that is comprehensible to most financial market participants.The book begins with a focus on coincident and leading economic indicators for the euro area. The following section looks at euro-area institutions. The next chapter focuses on the euro crisis. It attempts to provide an explanation of its origins and a glimpse of the potential outcomes. In addition! the tools needed to analyze the crisis as it evolves are presented. The last sections provide information unique to the economies of Germany! France! the U.K.! Switzerland! Sweden and Norway. Zusammenfassung The euro area remains in a state of flux and appears to be unsustainable in its present form. The outcome of the crisis may be unknown for years and a judgement on the project s success or failure may be out of reach for decades. Inhaltsverzeichnis Acknowledgements ixCHAPTER 1Introduction 1CHAPTER 2Gross Domestic Product 5The Expenditure Approach 5The Output Method 10The Income Method 11GNP vs. GDP 11Release Schedule 12Trend Growth 15The Business Cycle 16Monetary Conditions Index 19Effects of Monetary Policy on GDP 19Effects of the Exchange Rate on GDP 21Exchange-Rate Defl ators 23CHAPTER 3Coincident Indicators 27PMI Surveys 27Industrial Production 31CHAPTER 4Leading Indicators 35Financial Conditions Index 35The U.S. Business Cycle 38ZEW Survey 39Ifo Survey 41M1 Money Supply Growth 52CHAPTER 5Inflation Measures 57Consumer Price Index 57Producer Price Index 63Labor Costs 65Money Supply 68Inflation Expectations 76CHAPTER 6The European Central Bank 83Traffic Light System 86Mandate 88Two-Pillar Strategy 90Monetary Policy Implementation 91Intervention in the Currency Markets 93Taylor Rule 95CHAPTER 7Other Institutions 101Council of the European Union 101European Parliament 102European Commission 102Ecofin 103Eurogroup 103European Council 104CHAPTER 8Euro Crisis 105Origins 105Optimal Currency Area Th eory 109Fiscal Consolidation 111Quantitative and Qualitative Easing 112Government Bond Purchases 115Measures of National Solvency 117Target2 Balances 121Resolution 123Departure from the Euro Area 127Tools for Analyzing Debt Sustainability 127CHAPTER 9Germany 133Labor Market 133Political Institutions 137Political Parties 139CHAPTER 10France 143CHAPTER 11United Kingdom 145The Bank of England 145Quantitative Easing 153GDP 155Inflation Measures 157House Prices 158Political Institutions 164CHAPTER 12Switzerland 167The Swiss National Bank 167KOF Leading Indicator 168CHAPTER 13Sweden 171CHAPTER 14Norway 175Bibliography 179Index 197 ...
