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Peter F. Drucker, one of the world's most influential management gurus of all times, once said that "the best way to predict the future is to create it". In other words, those managers who systematically study the future have also the power to shape and influence the future. By the means of anticipation they can prepare for the expected as well as the unexpected which allows them to react more flexible and faster than competitors. Futures research, i.e. the interdisciplinary and systematic analysis of the future, has matured to both a theoretic- conceptual and application-oriented research discipline. In his dissertation, Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht concentrates on its most prominent and powerful tool: the scenario technique. The future of the logistics service industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges and opportunities. The industry experiences strong growth rates, but is also confronted with high complexity and dynamism. Intensifying globalisation, stronger competition, and higher customer demands are just some of the factors that lead to a more turbulent and uncertain environment. Against this background, there is a considerable need for futures orientation and innovation in logistics in order to establish flexibility, creativity, and the ability to adapt to changes quickly. The scenario technique is in fact one of the best tools to support decision making under uncertainty and can therefore be considered of high value for the logistics environment. Nevertheless, its proliferation among logistics service providers is low.
Sommario
Theoretical Foundations of Futures Research.- The Delphi Technique for Futures Research.- Fundamentals of Scenario Planning.- Scenario Planning in Strategic Logistics Management.- Research Design and Methodology.- Practices of Scenario Planning in the Logistics Service Industry.- Expert-Based Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry 2025.- Summary and Conclusions.
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Dr. Heiko von der Gracht ist Leiter des Thinktanks für Zukunftsmanagement des von KPMG geförderten Institute of Corporate Education e.V. (incore) und einer der führenden Experten für Zukunftsforschung in Deutschland. Im Redline Verlag ist von ihm bereits Survive erschienen.
Dr. Christopher Jahns, Lehrbeauftragter und Habilitand an der Technischen Universität München, Verwaltungsratsvorsitzender der Strategy and Supply Management Group, Geschäftsführender Partner der Forschungsfirma ManagementIntelligence St. Gallen AG.
