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A lively, authoritative insider’s account of how we make decisions and how decision-making research has developed over the last half century. Baruch Fischhoff covers all major topics in basic research, including how people create options, determine what matters to them, evaluate their chances of achieving those goals, and engage their emotions. He shows how those processes play out in an exceptionally wide variety of decisions regarding health (including trauma triage and pandemic diseases); safety (including accidents and interpersonal violence); the environment (including climate change and energy); disasters (including tornadoes and floods); and national security (including terrorism and intelligence analysis), among other topics. He also examines how decision-making abilities vary across individuals and across the lifespan, as well as the ethics and politics of how research is conducted and its results are shared and applied.
Sommario
Preface
Acknowledgements
Foreword by Paul Slovic
What Decisions Do People Face?
Chapter 1. Analyzing Decisions: Not as hard as it seems
Chapter 2. The Ethics of Analysis: Once the terms are set, the calculations hardly matter
Chapter 3. What Does Anyone Know? Uncertainty about the present and future
How Do People Interpret Their Decisions?
Chapter 4. What Did Anyone Know: Hindsight bias and vanishing uncertainty about the past
Chapter 5. How Much Do We Need to Know: Getting the facts that matter
Chapter 6. Knowing What You Can Get: Judging risks and benefits
Chapter 7. Knowing What You Want: Facing hard tradeoffs
Chapter 8. Decision Making Competence: Are some people better decision makers?
How Can Science Support Their Decision Making?
Chapter 9. Giving Advice: A case study of its perils
Chapter 10. Making Research Useful: Nuclear power, energy conservation, climate change, drug regulation, national security
Chapter 11. Better Decisions: Empowerment and manipulation
Chapter 12. Conclusion: Science at the boundaries
Coda: The Pandemic of 2020+
Info autore
Baruch Fischhoff is an internationally known scientist, studying basic and applied decision making. A long-time faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University, he is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine.
