Any Happy Returns - Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets

"Clear and well-written, and can be seen as a helpful primer on a wide range of issues independent of its main theses" - The Society of Professional Economists - Reading Room
 
"An invaluable read for economic history buffs, the book also offers hints on how to invest wisely that will appeal to other readers too."- Financial Times
 
'An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.'
 
In Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns.
 
The author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also find:
* An introduction to the history of cycles and structural 'Super Cycles', and what has driven them.
* A detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era.
* The specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation.
* Oppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities.
 
An invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, Any Happy Returns is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.

Sommario

Preface xvii
 
Acknowledgements xxi
 
About the Author xxv
 
Chapter 1: An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends 1
 
Repeating Cycles 3
 
The Social and Political Cycle 4
 
The Business Cycle 8
 
Super Cycles in Financial Markets 9
 
Psychology and Financial Market Super Cycles 11
 
Part I: Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles 19
 
Chapter 2: Equity Cycles and Their Drivers 21
 
The Four Phases of the Equity Cycle 22
 
1. Despair 23
 
2. Hope 23
 
3. Growth 24
 
4. Optimism 24
 
The Drivers of the Four Phases 24
 
The Cycle and Bear Markets 28
 
Identifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market 30
 
Valuations and the Market Inflection 30
 
Growth and the Market Inflection 32
 
Combining Growth and Valuation as a Signal 36
 
Inflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection 37
 
Combining Growth and Interest Rates 39
 
Chapter 3: Super Cycles and Their Drivers 41
 
Super Cycles in Economic Activity 42
 
The Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s 47
 
Super Cycles in Inflation 50
 
Super Cycles in Interest Rates 53
 
Super Cycles and Government Debt 55
 
Super Cycles in Inequality 56
 
Super Cycles in Financial Markets 59
 
Super Cycles in Equities 63
 
Structural upswings
 
1. 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom 66
 
2. 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle 66
 
3. 2009-2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates 67
 
'Fat and Flat' super cycles
 
1. 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns 68
 
2. 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles 68
 
Part II: Analysing Post-war Super Cycles 71
 
Chapter 4: 1949-1968: Post-World War II Boom 73
 
International Agreements and Falling Risk Premia 75
 
Strong Economic Growth 76
 
Technological Innovation 79
 
Low and Stable Real Interest Rates 81
 
A Boom in World Trade 83
 
A Baby Boom 83
 
The Consumer and Credit Boom 85
 
All-Consuming Consumerism 87
 
Chapter 5: 1968-1982: Inflation and Low Returns 91
 
A Lost Decade for Investors 92
 
The Bubble Before the Bust 93
 
High Interest Rates and Low Growth 95
 
The Collapse of Bretton Woods 96
 
Social Unrest and Strikes 100
 
Collapsing Trade, Increased Protectionism and Regulation 104
 
Increased Public Spending, Lower Margins 105
 
The End of the Downturn 107
 
Chapter 6: 1982-2000: The Modern Cycle 109
 
1. The Great Moderation 110
 
2. Disinflation and a Lower Cost of Capital 112
 
European Interest Rate Convergence 112
 
Monetary Policy and the 'Fed Put' 114
 
3. Supply-Side Reforms (Including Deregulation and Privatisation) 117
 
Tax Reforms 118
 
Deregulation and Privatisation 121
 
4. The End of the Soviet Union (Lower Geopolitical Risk) 123
 
5. Globalisation and Cooperation 124
 
Technology and the Labour Market 128
 
6. The Impact of China and India 128
 
7. Bubbles and Financial Innovation 129
 
The Japan Bubble and the Tech Bubble 130
 
Chapter 7: 2000-2009: Bubbles and Troubles 133
 
The Bursting of the Technology Bubble 135
 
The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 138
 
Leverage and Financial Innovation 140
 
The Decline in Long-Term Growth Expectations 147
 
The Rise in the Equity Risk Premium 148
 
The Negative Correlation Between Bonds and Equities 150
 

Info autore

PETER C. OPPENHEIMER has nearly 40 years of experience working as a macro research analyst. He is Chief Global Equity Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe within Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs. Prior to working at Goldman Sachs, he worked as chief investment strategist at HSBC and in a variety of other research roles at James Capel, Hambros Bank and Greenwells, where he started his career in 1985. Peter is a trustee at both the Development Committee for the National Institute of Economic & Social Research and The Anna Freud National Centre for Children and Families. He enjoys cycling and painting.

Riassunto

"Clear and well-written, and can be seen as a helpful primer on a wide range of issues independent of its main theses" - The Society of Professional Economists - Reading Room

"An invaluable read for economic history buffs, the book also offers hints on how to invest wisely that will appeal to other readers too."- Financial Times

'An in-depth but accessible analysis of the complex factors that impact structural changes in financial markets and investor opportunities.'

In Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets, celebrated author Peter C. Oppenheimer delivers his much-anticipated follow-up to The Long Good Buy. The book discusses how structural changes in macroeconomic drivers, geopolitics, government policy and social attitudes all combine to drive secular super cycles that help to explain investor returns.

The author focuses on what he calls the Post-Modern Cycle, what it's likely to look like, how it will unfold and what investors should focus on. You'll also find:
* An introduction to the history of cycles and structural 'Super Cycles', and what has driven them.
* A detailed analysis of Super Cycles since 1945, including the Post-War Boom, the Great Moderation, the post Global Financial Crisis and Pandemic era.
* The specific drivers of the emerging Post-Modern Cycle amid a higher cost of capital, bigger governments, more proactive industrial policy, greater regulation, and less globalisation.
* Oppenheimer focuses on the developments in technology and AI, and on efforts to de-carbonise economies, and how these might impact financial market returns and opportunities.

An invaluable resource for students of economic and financial history, and for investors, Any Happy Returns is essential reading for anyone seeking insights into upcoming market conditions and returns.

Dettagli sul prodotto

• Autori: Peter C Oppenheimer, Peter C. Oppenheimer
• Editore: Wiley, John and Sons Ltd
• Lingue: Inglese
• Formato: Copertina rigida
• Pubblicazione: 28.12.2023
• EAN: 9781394210350
• ISBN: 978-1-394-21035-0
• Pagine: 384
• Categorie: Guide e manuali > Diritto, professione, finanze; Saggistica > Politica, società, economia > Denaro, banca, borsa; Scienze sociali, diritto, economia > Economia > Economia aziendale; Finanzwesen, trading, Börsenhandel, Allg. Finanz- u. Anlagewesen, Finance & Investments, Finanz- u. Anlagewesen, Spezialthemen Finanz- u. Anlagewesen, Finance & Investments Special Topics