Trend Following - How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear, and Black Swan Markets

Want to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life? No one can guarantee the yellow brick road, but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide freaking awake.
 
Trend Following reveals the truth about a trading strategy that makes money in up, down and surprise markets. By applying straightforward and repeatable rules, anyone can learn to make money in the markets whether bull, bear, or black swan--by following the trend to the end when it bends. In this timely reboot of his bestselling classic, Michael Covel dives headfirst into trend following strategy to examine the risks, benefits, people, and systems. You'll hear from traders who have made millions by following trends, and learn from their successes and mistakes--insights only here. You'll learn the trend philosophy, and how it has performed in booms, bubbles, panics and crashes. Using incontrovertible data and overwhelming supporting evidence, with a direct connection to the foundations of behavioral finance, Covel takes you inside the core principles of trend following and shows everyone, from brand new trader to professional, how alpha gets pulled from the market.
 
Covel's newest edition has been revised and extended, with 7 brand new interviews and research proof from his one of kind network. This is trend following for today's generation. If you're looking to go beyond passive index funds and trusting the Fed, this cutting edge classic holds the keys to a weatherproof portfolio.
* Meet great trend followers learning their rules and philosophy of the game
* Examine data to see how trend following excels when the you-know-what hits the fan
* Understand trend trading, from behavioral economics to rules based decision-making to its lambasting of the efficient markets theory
* Compare trend trading systems to do it yourself or invest with a trend fund
 
Trend following is not prediction, passive index investing, buy and hope or any form of fundamental analysis. It utilizes concrete rules, or heuristics, to profit from a behavioral perspective. Trend Following is clear-cut, straightforward and evidence-based and will secure your financial future in bull, bear and black swan markets. If you're finally ready to profit in the markets, Trend Following is the definitive treatise for a complex world in constant chaos.

Sommario

F o r e w o r d b y B a r r y L . R i t h o l t z x v
 
P r e f a c e x i x
 
Section I Trend Following Principles 1
 
1 Trend Following 3
 
Speculation 3
 
Winning versus Losing 9
 
Investor versus Trader 10
 
Fundamental versus Technical 11
 
Discretionary versus Systematic 15
 
Hiding in Plain Sight 17
 
Change Is Life 19
 
Follow the Trend to the End When It Bends 22
 
Surf the Waves 26
 
2 Great Trend Followers 31
 
David Harding 33
 
Bill Dunn 37
 
John W. Henry 49
 
Ed Seykota 62
 
Keith Campbell 69
 
Jerry Parker 74
 
Salem Abraham 75
 
Richard Dennis 77
 
Richard Donchian 83
 
Jesse Livermore and Dickson Watts 87
 
3 Performance Proof 91
 
Absolute Returns 92
 
Volatility versus Risk 93
 
Drawdowns 99
 
Correlation 104
 
Zero Sum 106
 
George Soros 108
 
Berkshire Hathaway 111
 
4 Big Events, Crashes, and Panics 117
 
Event 1: Great Recession 119
 
Event 2: Dot-com Bubble 132
 
Event 3: Long-Term Capital Management 145
 
Event 4: Asian Contagion 157
 
Event 5: Barings Bank 161
 
Event 6: Metallgesellschaft 164
 
Event 7: Black Monday 167
 
5 Thinking Outside the Box 177
 
Baseball 178
 
Billy Beane 180
 
Bill James 181
 
Stats Take Over 183
 
6 Human Behavior 189
 
Prospect Theory 190
 
Emotional Intelligence 195
 
Neuro-Linguistic Programming 197
 
Trading Tribe 197
 
Curiosity, Not PhDs 199
 
Commitment 201
 
7 Decision Making 205
 
Occam's Razor 206
 
Fast and Frugal Decision Making 207
 
Innovator's Dilemma 210
 
Process versus Outcome versus Gut 211
 
8 The Scientific Method 215
 
Critical Thinking 216
 
Linear versus Nonlinear 217
 
Compounding 222
 
9 Holy Grails 225
 
Buy and Hope 228
 
Warren Buffett 229
 
Losers Average Losers 231
 
Avoiding Stupidity 236
 
10 Trading Systems 247
 
Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty 248
 
Five Questions 252
 
Your Trading System 263
 
Frequently Asked Questions 264
 
11 The Game 273
 
Acceptance 274
 
Don't Blame Me 276
 
Decrease Leverage, Decrease Return 277
 
Fortune Favors the Bold 278
 
Section II Trend Following Interviews 281
 
12 Ed Seykota 283
 
13 Martin Lueck 295
 
14 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud 311
 
15 Ewan Kirk 319
 
16 Alex Greyserman 335
 
17 Campbell Harvey 353
 
18 Lasse Heje Pedersen 367
 
Section III Trend Following Research 381
 
19 A Multicentennial View of Trend Following 383
 
The Tale of Trend Following: A Historical Study 385
 
Return Characteristics over the Centuries 388
 
Risk Characteristics over the Centuries 398
 
Portfolio Benefits over the Centuries 400
 
20 Two Centuries of Trend Following 405
 
Trend Following on Futures since 1960 408
 
Extending the Time Series: A Case-by-Case Approach 412
 
Trend over Two Centuries 417
 
21 Trend Following 425
 
Introduction to Different Trend Following Models 425
 
Diversification between Different Trend Following Models 427
 
Aspect's Approach to Trend Following 429
 
Aspect's Model Compared to Other Trend Following Models 431
 
22 Evaluating

Info autore

Michael W. Covel searches. He digs. He goes behind the curtain to reveal a state of mind the system doesn't want you in.
Michael teaches beginners to seasoned pros how to generate profits with straightforward and repeatable rules. He is best known for popularizing the counterintuitive and controversial trading strategy, trend following. His perspectives have garnered international acclaim and have earned him invitations with a host of organizations: China Asset Management, GIC Private Limited (Singapore), BM&F Bovespa, the Managed Funds Association, Bank of China Investment Management, the Market Technicians Association, and multiple hedge funds and mutual funds. He also has the distinction of having interviewed five Nobel Prize winners, including Daniel Kahneman and Harry Markowitz, on his Trend Following podcast-which now exceeds 500 episodes and 5 million listens.
Michael's consulting clients include individual traders, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investors in more than 70 countries. He splits his time between the United States and Asia.
www.trendfollowing.com

Riassunto

Want to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life? No one can guarantee the yellow brick road, but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide freaking awake.

Dettagli sul prodotto

• Autori: Michael W Covel, Michael W. Covel, Mw Covel, Covel Michael W., Barry Ritholtz
• Con la collaborazione di: Barry Ritholtz (Prefazione), Ritholtz Barry (Prefazione)
• Editore: Wiley, John and Sons Ltd
• Lingue: Inglese
• Formato: Copertina rigida
• Pubblicazione: 30.04.2017
• EAN: 9781119371878
• ISBN: 978-1-119-37187-8
• Pagine: 688
• Serie: Wiley Trading Series; Wiley Trading; Wiley Trading; Wiley Trading Series
• Categorie: Scienze sociali, diritto, economia > Economia > Economia aziendale; Finanzwesen, Finanzmarkt, Allg. Finanz- u. Anlagewesen, Finance & Investments, Finanz- u. Anlagewesen