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This book is a practical, step-by-step introduction to microsimulation in demography. It shows how to use Modgen, a powerful and free microsimulation platform built by Statistics Canada. The authors' hands-on explanation of model development will help readers make their own. The book teaches how to create and run a simple cohort model with a single fixed-rate event, and builds upon this concept. It introduces how to develop both a single state life table as well as a multiple increment-decrement life table using the tools provided by Modgen. The authors illustrate how to easily upgrade an existing model by adding new modules and new dimensions as determinants of a risk already modeled. The integration of a fertility module and a base population allows the user to bring new actors into the simulation and transform a cohort-based model into a population-based one. The final addition of an international migration module allows the user to accomplish fully open, multi-regional projections.This accessible introduction will be of interest to researchers and students in population studies and other social sciences. It will also appeal to anyone interested in the computational modeling of population dynamics.
Sommario
Introduction.- Chapter 1 Creating a basic cohort model.- Chapter 2 The life table.- Chapter 3 The multiple increment-decrement life table.- Chapter 4 Modelling fertility.- Chapter 5 The base population.- Chapter 6 International migration.- Conclusion.
Info autore
Alain Bélanger is professor of demography at the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS-Urbanisation Culture Société), in Montréal, Canada and President of the Canadian Population Association between (2014- 2016). He graduated from the University of Montréal where he received his BA in History and MSc in Demography, and from the University of Colorado where he received his PhD in Geography. Prior to his appointment as a university professor, he worked 17 years at Statistics Canada where he held the positions of Coordinator of research and analysis in Demography Division and Assistant-director with the Census Subject Matter Program. Between 1999 and 2006, he was the Editor of Statistics Canada’s annual Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada. His research interests include population projections and microsimulation, immigration and integration and demolinguistic.
Patrick Sabourin has a Bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a Master’s degree in Biology, both from McGill University (Montréal, Canada). He is now a PhD student in Demography under the supervision of Alain Bélanger at the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS-Urbanisation Culture Société). His research interests include demographic projections, microsimulation and population modeling, immigration and demolinguistics.
Riassunto
This book is a practical, step-by-step introduction to microsimulation in demography. It shows how to use Modgen, a powerful and free microsimulation platform built by Statistics Canada. The authors' hands-on explanation of model development will help readers make their own. The book teaches how to create and run a simple cohort model with a single fixed-rate event, and builds upon this concept. It introduces how to develop both a single state life table as well as a multiple increment-decrement life table using the tools provided by Modgen. The authors illustrate how to easily upgrade an existing model by adding new modules and new dimensions as determinants of a risk already modeled. The integration of a fertility module and a base population allows the user to bring new actors into the simulation and transform a cohort-based model into a population-based one. The final addition of an international migration module allows the user to accomplish fully open, multi-regional projections.This accessible introduction will be of interest to researchers and students in population studies and other social sciences. It will also appeal to anyone interested in the computational modeling of population dynamics.
