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Klappentext This book focuses on the modelling of contemporary health and social problems, especially those considered a major burden to communities, governments and taxpayers, such as smoking, alcoholism, drug use, and heart disease. Based on a series of papers presented at a recent conference hosted by the Leverhulme-funded Tipping Points project at the University of Durham, this book illustrates a broad range of modelling approaches. Such a diverse collection demonstrates that an interdisciplinary approach is essential to modelling tipping points in health and social problems, and the assessment of associated risk and resilience. Zusammenfassung This book focuses on the modelling of contemporary health and social problems, especially those considered a major burden to communities, governments and taxpayers, such as smoking, alcoholism, drug use, and heart disease. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of Contributors xiAcknowledgements xiiiIntroduction xvPART I THE SMOKING EPIDEMIC 11 Generalised Compartmental Modelling of Health Epidemics 31.1 Introduction 31.2 Basic compartmental model of smoking dynamics 51.3 Properties of the basic model 81.4 Generalised model inclusive of multiple peer recruitment 101.5 Bistability and 'tipping points' in the generalised model 151.6 Summary and conclusions 182 Stochastic Modelling for Compartmental Systems Applied to Social Problems 212.1 Introduction 212.2 Global sensitivity analysis of deterministic models 232.3 Sensitivity analysis of the generalised smoking model with peer influence 242.4 Adding randomness to a deterministic model 262.5 Sensitivity analysis of the stochastic analogue 282.6 Conclusion 303 Women and Smoking in the North East of England 323.1 Introduction 333.2 Background 333.3 Interrogating the figures 353.4 Materialist and cultural or behavioural explanations 393.5 The tobacco industry and the creation of social values 413.6 Local voices 433.7 Conclusions 44PART II MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN HEALTHCARE 494 Cardiac Surgery Performance Monitoring 514.1 Introduction 524.2 Statistical framework for monitoring 554.3 A non-stationary process 614.4 Dynamic modelling approaches 684.5 Case example 744.6 Discussion 754.7 Conclusion 775 Heart Online Uncertainty and Stability Estimation 825.1 Introduction 835.2 Monitoring live complex systems 835.3 The Bayes linear approach 855.4 The Fantasia and Sudden Cardiac Death databases 865.5 Exploring ECG datasets 875.6 Assessing discrepancy 915.7 Final remarks and conclusion 936 Stents, Blood Flow and Pregnancy 956.1 Introduction 966.2 Drug-eluting stents 976.3 Modelling blood flow 1016.4 Modelling a capillary-fill medical diagnostic tool 1036.5 Summary and closing remarks 110PART III TIPPING POINTS IN SOCIAL DYNAMICS 1137 From Five Key Questions to a System Sociology Theory 1157.1 Introduction 1167.2 Complexity features 1177.3 Mathematical tools 1197.4 Black Swans from the interplay of different dynamics 1227.5 Validation of models 1257.6 Conclusions: towards a mathematical theory of social systems 1268 Complexity in Spatial Dynamics: The Emergence of Homogeneity /Heterogeneity in Culture in Cities 1308.1 Introduction 1318.2 Modelling approach 1328.3 Description of the model 1348.4 Sensitivity analysis and results 1388.5 Discussion and conclusions 1419 Cultural Evolution, Gene-Culture Coevolution, and Human Health 1469.1 Introduction 1479.2 Cultural evolution 1499.3 Epidemiological modelling of cultural change 1539.4 Gene-culture coevolution 1579.5 Conclusion 16310 Conformity Bias and Catastrophic Social Change 16810.1 Introduction 16810.2 Three-population compartmental model 17110.3 Basic system excluding conformity bias 17310.4 Including conformity bias 17410.5 Comparative statics 17610.6 Summary 17810.7 Conclusions 179Appendix 10.A: Stability in the conformity bias...
