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Time series, or longitudinal, data are ubiquitous in the social sciences. Unfortunately, analysts often treat the time series properties of their data as a nuisance rather than a substantively meaningful dynamic process to be modeled and interpreted. Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences provides accessible, up-to-date instruction and examples of the core methods in time series econometrics. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, John R. Freeman, Jon C. Pevehouse and Matthew P. Hitt cover a wide range of topics including ARIMA models, time series regression, unit-root diagnosis, vector autoregressive models, error-correction models, intervention models, fractional integration, ARCH models, structural breaks, and forecasting. This book is aimed at researchers and graduate students who have taken at least one course in multivariate regression. Examples are drawn from several areas of social science, including political behavior, elections, international conflict, criminology, and comparative political economy.
Sommario
1. Modeling social dynamics; 2. Univariate time series models; 3. Dynamic regression models; 4. Modeling the dynamics of social systems; 5. Univariate, nonstationary processes: tests and modeling; 6. Co-integration and error-correction models; 7. Selections on time series analysis; 8. Concluding thoughts for the time series analyst.
Info autore
Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier is Vernal Riffe Professor of Political Science and Professor of Sociology at Ohio State University (courtesy), where she is a University Distinguished Scholar and directs the Program in Statistics and Methodology (PRISM). Box-Steffensmeier served as president of the Midwest Political Science Association and the Political Methodology Society and as treasurer of the American Political Science Association. She has twice received the Gosnell Prize for the best work in political methodology, and she received the Emerging Scholar Award from the Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior Subsection of the American Political Science Association. She was an inaugural Fellow of the Society for Political Methodology. The Box-Steffensmeier Graduate Student Award, given annually by the Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), is named after her in recognition of her contributions in political methodology and her support of women in this field.
Riassunto
Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences provides accessible, up-to-date instruction and examples of the core methods in time series econometrics. The book covers ARIMA models, time series regression, unit-root diagnosis, vector autoregressive models, error-correction models, intervention models, fractional integration, ARCH models, structural breaks, and forecasting.
