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Informationen zum Autor Kenneth A. Posner is a financial services industry analyst and a fifteen-year veteran of Morgan Stanley, where he served as managing director and senior research analyst and where his work received high rankings from Institutional Investor and Greenwich Associates. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and holds the Certified Public Accountant, Chartered Financial Analyst, and Financial Risk Manager designations. Visit the author at www.stalkingtheblackswan.com. Klappentext Bringing his experience to bear on this issue, Posner describes a set of research strategies that can help investors and other decision makers better anticipate and react to the "Black Swans" that all-too-frequently rock the markets. Drawing from the classic, fundamental research heritage of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, as well as more recent developments in cognitive science and the world of quants, Posner outlines a pragmatic approach to establishing more accurate forecasts, thinking in probabilities, balancing confidence, handling information overload, harnessing sophisticated computer analytics, and even interviewing corporate executives-all with the goal of making better financial decisions. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal-our computers and our minds-Posner shows us how to navigate the next phase of our financial recovery. Inhaltsverzeichnis Acknowledgments Introduction PART I: Uncertainty 1. Forecasting in Extreme Environments 2. Thinking in Probabilities 3. The Balance Between Overconfidence and Underconfidence, and the Special Risk of Complex Modeling PART II: Information 4. Fighting Information Overload with Strategy 5. Making Decisions in Real Time: How to React to New Information Without Falling Victim to Cognitive Dissonance 6. Mitigating Information Asymmetry PART III: Analysis and Judgment 7. Mapping from Simple Ideas to Complex Analysis 8. The Power and Pitfalls of Monte Carlo Modeling 9. Judgment Notes Index...
