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The 18 research articles of this volume discuss the major themes that have emerged from mathematical and statistical research in the epidemiology of HIV. The opening paper reviews important recent contributions. Five sections follow: Statistical Methodology and Forecasting, Infectivity and the HIV, Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics, Social Dynamics and AIDS, and The Immune System and The HIV. In each, leading experts in AIDS epidemiology present the recent results. Some address the role of variable infectivity, heterogeneous mixing, and long periods of infectiousness in the dynamics of HIV; others concentrate on parameter estimation and short-term forecasting. The last section looks at the interaction between the HIV and the immune system.
Sommario
Statistical and Mathematical Approaches in HIV/AIDS Modeling: A Review.- I. Statistical Methodology and Forecasting.- Epidemic Models, Empirical Studies, and Uncertainty.- Predicting AIDS Incidence by Extrapolating from Recent Trends.- II. Infectivity and the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV).- Measuring HIV Infectivity.- The Stages of HIV Infection: Waiting Times and Infection Transmission Probabilities.- Modeling Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Infectivity for HIV Infection.- On the Role of Variable Infectivity in the Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.- III. Heterogeneity and HIV Transmission Dynamics.- Assessment of the Risk of HIV Spread Via Non-steady Heterosexual Partners in the U. S. Population.- On the Role of Long Incubation Periods in the Dynamics of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Part 2: Multiple Group Models.- Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission.- IV. Social Dynamics and AIDS.- The Structure and Context of Social Interactions and the Spread of HIV.- Pair Formation in Sexually-Transmitted Diseases.- Mixing Framework for Social/Sexual Behavior.- Interaction, Pair Formation and Force of Infection Terms in Sexually Transmitted Diseases.- Structured Mixing: Heterogeneous Mixing by the Definition of Activity Groups.- Selective Contact within Structured Mixing with an Application to HIV Transmission Risk from Oral and Anal Sex.- V. The Immune System and the HIV.- Modeling the Interaction of the Immune System with HIV.- Modeling the Interaction of HIV with Cells of the Immune System.- When HIV meets the Immune System: Network Theory, Alloimmunity, Autoimmunity, and AIDS.
