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Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today's financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Sommario
Financial analysts.- Earnings forecast error.- Earnings forecast accuracy.- Earnings forecast revision.- Conservatism.- Forecast effort.
Info autore
Dr. Sebastian Gell received his doctoral degree from the University of Cologne under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Carsten Homburg (Department of Business Administration and Management Accounting).
Riassunto
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. Sebastian Gell gives answer to the following questions: How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions? And what factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
