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In a world demanding climate action, the oil-rich Gulf states face a defining crossroads: can they transform economies built on fossil fuels into resilient, climate-aligned powerhouses? This timely and original study offers a rigorous, multidimensional analysis of how Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are navigating the high-stakes transition to decarbonization. Weaving together historical political economy, postcolonial state formation, economic pressures, geopolitical realignments, and environmental imperatives, it explores the difficult trade-offs and strategic decisions forging the region's trajectory. Through incisive analysis, it reveals emerging policy innovations, evolving social contracts, and institutional strategies that are redefining the Gulf's energy future-while critically evaluating the macroeconomic consequences of climate-driven transformation. Essential reading for policymakers, financiers, energy professionals, multilateral institutions, and scholars, The Gulf's Climate Reckoning offers an intellectual and strategic framework for understanding the Gulf's climate-industrial transformation and its far-reaching implications for the emerging global energy and governance landscape.
List of contents
Introduction: climate crossroads: gulf decarbonization and the legacy of oil; Part I. The Birth of the Petro-State: How Oil Reshaped the Gulf: 1. The philosophy of oil: theorizing development in the gulf states; 2. Oil and Ambition: the gulf's industrial ascendancy; 3. Modernization and its discontents: climate change, socio-political reform, and demographic anxiety; 4. Geo-strategic norm-shaping and the art of the subsidy; 5. Gaslighting the gulf: the perils of low-priced natural gas; Part II. Reinventing the Petro-State: The Gulf's Race Against the Climate Clock: 6. Shifting sands: the geopolitics of climate diplomacy; 7. From crude to clean: the renewable energy surge; 8. Crafting the future: design pathways for gulf carbon emission reductions; 9. The sixth wave imperative: the gulf's strategic reset for a post-carbon world; Appendix; References; Index.
About the author
Dr Justin Dargin is a senior scholar at the University of Oxford specializing in global energy policy, carbon markets, and climate-industrial strategy, with deep expertise in the Middle East and North Africa. A former fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and a Fulbright Scholar for the region, he received the Harvard Arab Alumni Award for his seminal work on Gulf decarbonization and climate strategy. Dargin authored the first comprehensive framework for sovereign carbon market development in the Gulf—research that both predated and anticipated the region's emerging climate and energy agenda. He has advised Gulf governments, international energy companies, and multilateral institutions on regulatory design, energy transition planning, and climate finance architecture. He is a frequent media commentator on energy geopolitics and the author of numerous publications on carbon governance and the reconfiguration of the global energy order.
Summary
In a world demanding climate action, the oil-rich Gulf states face a pivotal moment. Can they transform their economies, built on fossil fuels, into sustainable powerhouses? This seminal work offers a comprehensive analysis of how Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are navigating the complex transition towards decarbonization. Examining the intertwined forces of economic necessity, geopolitical shifts, and environmental pressures, the book illuminates the difficult choices and trade-offs these nations face. Through rigorous examination, it reveals the innovative policies, technological advancements, and evolving social contracts shaping the Gulf's energy future, while critically assessing the impact of decarbonization on their macroeconomic growth. This book is essential reading for scholars, policymakers, and industry leaders seeking to understand the complexities of the Gulf's energy landscape and its implications for the global fight against climate change.
