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Informationen zum Autor Terry Williams once believed he couldn't live happy! joyous! and free every day of his life. As his relationship with his Heavenly Father has grown he now knows he can. He is committed to speaking and writing books so that others can learn to live every day in what Terry calls divine carelessness. Just as any loving parent would desire that their children live free from worry! doubt! fear! anxiety! and etc. If they will trust the Lord more than they do themselves (Proverbs 3)! they too can live happy! joyous! free! peaceful! purposeful! and oh so powerful everyday lives. Klappentext IN RECENT YEARS , the need for help in understanding project behaviour has been exacerbated, as projects have become more complex while time-scales have tightened, adding to project complexity. Project teams however, rarely pay sufficient attention to modelling the behaviour of projects and this can lead to inadequate risk analysis, ineffective project control, and uninformed "lessons learned". Because the behaviour of complex projects is often puzzling, or counter-intuitive, we need models. This book presents a structured toolkit of techniques, developed gradually from the simple to the more complex, and provides examples to show where, when and why the techniques should be used. It looks at what causes project complexity, describes various aspects of project behaviour and develops modelling tools. Starting with more traditional techniques modelling individual effects on projects, giving a full treatment (including some novel network concepts) the book enables readers to build breakdown - and network - type models. It also considers some of the more difficult aspects of modelling by moving into the "softer", more subjective, effects and then looking at systemic models of the effects as they come together. Finally, it looks at various methods of developing hybrid tools, to utilise the benefits of combinations of techniques. Based on a wealth of practical experience and bringing together a range of tried and tested techniques, this book explains where the use of modelling can help estimate, monitor, control and analyse projects and thus lead to successful implementation. Zusammenfassung It is widely acknowledged that traditional Project Management techniques are no longer sufficient, as projects become more complex and clienta s demand reduced timescales. Problems that arise include inadequate planning and risk analysis, ineffective project monitoring and control, and uninformed post--mortem analysis. Inhaltsverzeichnis 1 This Book 1 Introduction to the book and the author 1 Why is there a need for this book? 3 The structure of this book 7 What do I need to know before I read this book? 8 Conclusion 11 2 Projects 13 What is a project? 13 What are project objectives? 15 Basic project management techniques 18 Projects referred to in this book 23 Conclusion 29 3 Modelling 31 What is a model? 31 Why do we model? 35 Modelling in practice 40 Validation 44 Conclusion 47 4 What is a Complex Project? 49 Introduction 49 What is complexity? Structural complexity 50 What is complexity? Uncertainty 55 What is complexity? Summary 58 Increasing complexity 59 Tools and techniques-and the way ahead 62 5 Discrete Effects and Uncertainty 65 Introduction 65 Uncertainty and risk in projects 66 Cost risk: additive calculations 78 Time risk: effects in a network 89 Analysing time risk: simulation 96 Criticality and cruciality 104 The three criteria and beyond 115 Conclusion 118 6 Discrete Effects: Collecting Data 119 Introduction 119 Collecting subjective data: identification 121 ...
