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Zusatztext "Vavreck's book is an interesting and very readable contribution for people with an interest in media and election studies. The themes candidates use within American election cycles are now much better illuminated and Vavreck opens the door for a host of exciting analyses that will likely be built on The Message Matters ' foundation." ---Anders B. Rasmussen! MedieKultur Informationen zum Autor Lynn Vavreck Klappentext "Vavreck's creative theorizing and informative historical analysis will change the way political scientists think about presidential campaigns. While giving campaign strategists their overdue due, she also sheds invaluable light on how political contexts shape their strategies and their odds of success." --Larry M. Bartels, author of Unequal Democracy "Lynn Vavreck's message matters. She explains how and when candidate messages can clarify distinctions and gain vote share over the course of a campaign. Moving beyond puerile arguments about whether campaigns matter, Vavreck identifies critical differences among issues--and between incumbents and challengers--that determine which messages are persuasive." --Samuel L. Popkin, University of California, San Diego "I have not read a book of comparable elegance of argument and mastery of analysis in years. It is outstanding on three dimensions. In its combination of analytical depth and economy, it is a model for research on election campaigns. In its fusion of theory and empirics, it is a model for research in political science. In its principled, persistent, ingenious efforts to turn up evidence against its own hypotheses, it is a model for the social sciences." --Paul M. Sniderman, Stanford University "Professor Vavreck shows, for the first time, how the economy plays for or against political candidates in the context of their campaigns. The work is a monumental theoretical and empirical achievement that promises to become a political science classic." --Michael S. Lewis-Beck, author of Economics and Elections "A pathbreaking contribution to the study of American politics, The Message Matters provides new insights into how campaigns affect the magnitude of the economic vote. It will be required reading for anyone doing serious work in the field of campaigns." --Raymond Duch, Nuffield College, University of Oxford Zusammenfassung Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of Figures xi List of Tables xiii Acknowledgments xvii Prologue xxi CHAPTER ONE: Presidential Campaigns 1 Basic Questions 2 What's Coming 3 PART I CHAPTER TWO: How and Why Campaigns Matter 9 The Challenge 10 Something's Happening in America 11 The Importance of the Economy 12 The Importance of the Media 14 A Theory of Campaign Effects 15 Integrating Literatures 16 Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of the Future 18 Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22 Individual-Level Characteristics and Campaign Effects 23 CHAPTER THREE: Context Matters: A Campaign Typology 26 Theoretical Predictions 28 A Campaign Typology 31 Clarifying Campaigns 31 Insurgent Campaigns 32 When the Economy Is Mixed 33 Predicting Campaign Types! 1952-2000 35 PART II CHAPTER FOUR: The Media Disconnect:Media and Candidate Messages 43 Candidates' Messages and How to Measure Them 46 Advertisements and Speeches 46 Newspaper Coverage 48 Coding the Ads! Speeches! and News Coverage 53 The Content of Modern Campaigns 57 The Media Disconnect 58 CHAPTER FIVE: The Message Matters: Candidate-Level Test...
