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Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification describes the fundamentals of volcanic hazard quantification, which forecasts the potential intensity of volcanic activity in the future. The book closely examines the modelling and forecasting techniques that make up Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA). The book is organized in three parts. First, the authors introduce the fundamentals of modelling for different eruptive and non-eruptive phenomena that characterize volcanic activity. This includes volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout, volcanic gas dispersal, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lava domes, lahar and debris flows, and volcanic tsunamis. In the second part, the authors examine existing statistical tools for forecasting volcanic activity and managing uncertainties, ranging from methods adopted for both short-term forecasts and long-term models. Finally, several case studies are presented, with examples in the area of Naples, which is threatened by three active volcanoes (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia), Mt Etna in Sicily, and volcanic islands such as Ischia and Vulcano in the Aeolian Islands. This book provides a much-needed reference on volcanic hazard quantification for those working to forecast volcanic activity as well as manage emergency preparedness.
List of contents
Part I. Modelling volcanic hazardous phenomena1. Introduction to physical volcanology and volcanic phenomena
2. Volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout
3. Volcanic gas dispersal
4. Pyroclastic density currents
5. Lava flows and lava domes
6. Lahar and debris flows
7. Volcanic tsunamis
Part II. Quantitative hazard analysis8. Probabilistic volcanic hazards and risks
9. Observational data in volcanic hazard
10. Long-term volcanic hazard analysis
11. Short-term volcanic hazard
12. Principles of multi-hazard and multi-risk
Part III. Case studies and examplesLong-term volcanic hazards: examples from Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
Short-term eruption forecasting: examples from Campi Flegrei and Mt. Etna
Multiple hazards at volcanic islands: examples from Ischia and Vulcano
Emergency plans at the Neapolitan volcanoes
About the author
Jacopo Selva is Associate Professor at the University of Naples "Federico II?, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, where he is titular of the master courses "Volcanic Hazard?, "Seismology and Seismic Hazard?, and "Statistics in Volcanology?. He was researcher at INGV Bologna (2005-2022), where he was national responsible for the research line "Eruption Dynamics and Scenarios? (2014-2017) and member of the steering committee of the tsunami warning centre (2018-2022). He was guest researcher at the University of Ulster (2003) and at the University Aristoteleio of Thessaloniki (2010-2013), and contract professor at the University of Perugia (2020) and the University of Bologna (2021-2023). For his scientific achievements was awarded the EGU Plinius Medal in 2024.
