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Informationen zum Autor CALLUM HENDERSON is Head of FX Strategy for a leading international bank, based in Singapore. A wide-quoted authority of both emerging and currency markets, Mr Henderson has spent the past 16 years in the financial markets in various capacities and has written articles for many leading financial journals and given seminars around the world on global currency markets. Mr Henderson is the author of three previous books covering the Asian economic story: the bestseller Asia Falling , China on the Brink (awarded Best Business Book of 1999 by the Library Journal of the US) and Asian Dawn . Klappentext Following the success of the first edition, this second edition includes important new material: a Preface to the Second Edition, additional sections for Chapters 7, 8 and 9 on the Real World of the Currency Market Practitioner, and a new Chapter 11 - Emerging World: New Growth Markets for Global FX.The global foreign exchange market continues to go from strength to strength, defying those who predicted its demise after the launch of the Euro. However, within this, new Emerging Markets show the greatest potential for growth. This second edition examines in detail the very latest trends in this field, providing important insights for currency market practitioners on regions such as Asia, which may hold the key to the market's development in years to come.John Maynard Keynes' reference to the 'animal spirits', that elemental force which drives financial markets in herd-like fashion, was applied to the stock market. However, he might as well have been referring to the currency market, for the term sums up no other more perfectly. A market that is volatile and unpredictable, a market that epitomizes such a concept as the 'animal spirits', surely requires a very specific discipline by which to study it.This is precisely what Callum Henderson does in this eminently practical and readable book. He provides an analytical framework for currency analysis and forecasting, combining long-term economic valuation models with market-based valuation techniques to produce a more accurate and use-friendly analytical tool for the currency market practitioners themselves. Zusammenfassung Currency Strategy, Second Edition develops new techniques and explains classic tools available for predicting, managing, and optimizing fluctuations in the currency markets. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface to the Second Edition xi Acknowledgements xvii About the Author xix Introduction 1 Part One Theory and Practice 15 1 Fundamental Analysis: The Strengths and Weaknesses of Traditional Exchange Rate Models 17 1.1 Purchasing Power Parity 17 1.1.1 Reasons for "Misalignments" 19 1.1.2 Tradable and Non-Tradable Goods 20 1.1.3 PPP and Corporate Pricing Strategy 20 Example 1 20 Example 2 22 1.1.4 PPP and the Real Exchange Rate 24 1.2 The Monetary Approach 25 1.2.1 Mundell-Fleming 27 1.2.2 Theory vs. Practice 29 1.2.3 A Multi-Polar rather than a Bi-Polar Investment World 30 1.2.4 Two Legs but not Three 30 1.2.5 Implications for New EU Member States 31 1.3 The Interest Rate Approach 32 1.3.1 Real Interest Rate Differentials and Exchange Rates 34 1.4 The Balance of Payments Approach 34 1.4.1 A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime 35 1.4.2 A Floating Exchange Rate Regime 36 1.4.3 The External Balance and the Real Exchange Rate 37 1.4.4 REER and FEER 38 1.4.5 Terms of Trade 39 1.4.6 Productivity 40 1.5 The Portfolio Balance Approach 42 Example 42 1.6 Summary 44 2 Currency Economics: A More Focused Framework 47 2.1 Currencies are Different 48 2.1.1 (In)Efficient Markets 48 2.1.2 Speculation and Exchange Rates: Cause, Effect and the Cycle 49<...
