Read more
Student tested before it was published, this textbook provides 30 chapters worth of practical guidance, methods, and tools and techniques to help individuals and organizations to make decisions under uncertainty. The book addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty in a variety of private and public sector fields.
List of contents
Chapter 1: Why Decisions Under Uncertainty Matter. Chapter 2: Decision Making: How Decisions Shape Outcomes. Chapter 3: Understanding Uncertainty: What It Is and Why It Matters. Chapter 4: Risk: The Link Between Uncertainty and Decisions. Chapter 5: Outcomes Are Uncertain. Chapter 6: The Psychology of Decisions: Fast vs. Slow Thinking. Chapter 7: Why Heuristics and Biases Fail Under Uncertainty. Chapter 8: How Innumeracy Limits Understanding of Uncertainty. Chapter 9: Building a Culture That Embraces Uncertainty. Chapter 10: Uncertain Aspects of Decision Making. Chapter 11: The Illusion of Precision. Chapter 12: Ignoring Uncertainty. Chapter 13: Managing Information and Uncertainty. Chapter 14: How Risk Preferences Drive Decisions. Chapter 15: Risk Analysis. Chapter 16: Think More Probabilistically. Chapter 17: Characterizing Uncertainty: The Key to Risk-Informed Decision Making. Chapter 18: Tools for Quantitative Characterizations of Uncertainty. Chapter 19: Expert Elicitation: Managing Irreducible Uncertainty. Chapter 20: Sensitivity Analysis. Chapter 21: The Monte Carlo Process and Scenario Planning. Chapter 22: Leveraging Big Data, Analytics and AI to Combat Uncertainty. Chapter 23: Strategies and Tactics for Addressing Uncertainty. Chapter 24: Socialize Asking for Evidence. Chapter 25: Change the Decision-Making Meeting. Chapter 26: Knowing When to Decide. Chapter 27: Power-Down Decision Making. Chapter 28: Turning Failure into Insight. Chapter 29: Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision Making. Chapter 30: False Information.
About the author
Dr. Charles Yoe is a Professor of Economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University and an internationally acclaimed author and consultant specializing in risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. With more than 40 years of experience, Dr. Yoe has advised a diverse array of clients, including government agencies, private sector organizations, and international institutions, on assessing and managing complex risks across communities of practice such as food safety, flood risk management, international trade, navigation, ecosystem restoration, pharmaceuticals, wildland fires, and others.
Dr. Yoe has authored four widely respected textbooks on risk analysis and numerous articles that bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications. His insights have been sought by over 20 U.S. government agencies, as well as global organizations like the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization. His training workshops and consulting engagements have empowered professionals in over 60 countries to navigate uncertainty effectively, making his work a cornerstone of risk management education and practice.
As the Coordinator of Notre Dame of Maryland University's online graduate Risk Management program, Dr. Yoe has developed and taught courses that equip future professionals with critical skills for addressing uncertainty. Recognized for his contributions, he has received multiple awards from U.S. government agencies. Dr. Yoe's interdisciplinary expertise and commitment to practical solutions underpin his influential role in advancing decision making under uncertainty. Through his writing, consulting, and teaching, Dr. Yoe continues to influence how individuals and organizations approach risk in an increasingly uncertain world.
