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Student tested before it was published, this textbook provides 30 chapters worth of practical guidance, methods, and tools and techniques to help individuals and organizations to make decisions under uncertainty. The book addresses the challenges posed by uncertainty in a variety of private and public sector fields.
List of contents
PART ONE Introduction to Decision Making Under Uncertainty. 1 Why Decisions Under Uncertainty Matter. 2 Decisions: How They Are Made and Why They Fail. 3 Uncertainty: What It Is and Why It Matters. 4 Risk: The Link Between Uncertainty and Decisions. 5 Uncertain Outcomes. PART TWO Psychological and Cultural Aspects of Uncertainty. 6 The Psychology of Decisions: Fast vs. Slow Thinking. 7 Heuristics and Biases: Why They Fail Under Uncertainty. 8 Innumeracy: Why It Limits Understanding of Uncertainty. 9 Building a Culture That Embraces Uncertainty. 10 Uncertain Aspects of Decision Making. 11 The Illusion of Precision. 12 Ignoring Uncertainty. PART THREE Analytical Tools and Techniques. 13 Managing Information and Uncertainty. 14 How Risk Preferences Drive Decisions. 15 Risk Analysis. 16 Think More Probabilistically. 17 Characterizing Uncertainty: The Key to Risk-Informed Decision Making. 18 Tools for Quantitative Characterizations of Uncertainty. 19 Expert Elicitation: Managing Irreducible Uncertainty. 20 Sensitivity Analysis. 21 The Monte Carlo Process and Scenario Planning. 22 Leveraging Big Data, Analytics, and AI to Combat Uncertainty. PART FOUR Strategies and Tactics for Effective Decision Making. 23 Strategies and Tactics for Addressing Uncertainty. 24 Socialize Asking for Evidence. 25 Change the Decision-Making Meeting. 26 Knowing When to Decide. 27 Power-Down Decision Making. 28 Turning Failure into Insight. PART FIVE Special Topics. 29 Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision Making. 30 False Information.
Index
About the author
Charles Yoe is a Professor of Economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University and an internationally acclaimed author and consultant specializing in risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. With more than 40 years of experience, Dr. Yoe has advised a diverse array of clients, including government agencies, private sector organizations, and international institutions, on assessing and managing complex risks across communities of practice such as food safety, flood risk management, international trade, navigation, ecosystem restoration, pharmaceuticals, wildland fires, and others.
Dr. Yoe has authored four widely respected textbooks on risk analysis and numerous articles that bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications. His insights have been sought by over 20 U.S. government agencies, as well as global organizations like the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Health Organization. His training workshops and consulting engagements have empowered professionals in over 60 countries to navigate uncertainty effectively, making his work a cornerstone of risk management education and practice.
As the Coordinator of Notre Dame of Maryland University's online graduate Risk Management program, Dr. Yoe has developed and taught courses that equip future professionals with critical skills for addressing uncertainty. Recognized for his contributions, he has received multiple awards from U.S. government agencies. Dr. Yoe's interdisciplinary expertise and commitment to practical solutions underpin his influential role in advancing decision making under uncertainty. Through his writing, consulting, and teaching, Dr. Yoe continues to influence how individuals and organizations approach risk in an increasingly uncertain world.
