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This book provides clear, practical guidance on decision analysis tools and the psychology behind human choices. Learn how to apply these insights to make better personal and professional decisions, understand the logic of optimal choices, and boost your confidence in making them.
List of contents
List of figures; List of tables; Preface; Acknowledgements; Section I. Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making; 1. Introduction to decision theory and decision making; 2. Thinking like a gambler: for all the gambles of life; 3. Using decision trees to see through the forest ahead; 4. Strategies for decision making in an environment of risk: how to get the most and avoid the worst, no matter what; Section II. Cognitive Processes of Decision Making; 5. Heuristics: assumptions and quick rules of thumb we all use - but maybe shouldn't; 6. Prospect theory: psychological aspects beyond expected value; 7. Two systems: a descriptive model that explains how people make decisions; 8. Decisions are made based on our memories, but how reliable are our memories?; 9. Psychology + economics = behavioral economics = ways to (gently) influence decisions; Section III. Applications, Examples, and Selected Topics; 10. Signal detection theory: how to detect the important signal against the distracting background and take action; 11. Game theory as applied to real-world decisions; 12. Decision making under stress: staying ahead of rapidly changing events and making difficult, time-critical decisions; 13. Decision making involving disputes, negotiation, and conflict; 14. Multi-attribute utility decisions: making complex and multidimensional decisions; 15. Common decision traps and how to avoid them; 16. Overcoming indecisiveness by understanding what causes it; 17. Looking back and looking ahead: what about emotion, culture, artificial intelligence, and intuition?; Bibliography; Index.
About the author
Harvey J. Langholtz is a professor in the Department of Psychological Sciences at William and Mary, specializing in decision theory. He was a commander in the US Coast Guard, a member of the US delegation to the United Nations, and the founding director of a nonprofit nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
