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This book reviews China's strategic pathway over the last 1000 years and considers its prospects for ascending to high-income status by the end of the 21st century. It analyzes why, although China's chances of joining the global core are sound, they are not outstanding; in addition, it faces mounting challenges, internal and external alike. The argument is presented in the framework of dynamic-strategy theory, which is expounded here in novel form. This exposition includes a wide ranging survey of global history, with a focus on the development of the industrialisation paths of the major economies of today, including a detailed study of Japan's long-run strategic pathway.
The book's closing section presents a scenario-based discussion of China's potential place in the world in 2100. The analysis implies that China's zenith is likely to be reached slightly before mid-century, after which its relative economic scale will likely decline. Beyond that generalfinding, the scenarios investigate the wide range of plausible outcomes that China may experience: a range that the author contends is much wider for China than for nations under-pinned by less complex political-economies. Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars of history, economics, geopolitics and sinology, and to anyone interested in learning about China's economic prospects at a time of increasingly heated ideological and empirical debates.
List of contents
Chapter 1. The Strategic Logic of China's Economy.- Chapter 2. The Dynamic Strategy Theory, a Formal Statement.- Chapter 3. Industrialisation Sub-strategies: Theory and Practice.- Chapter 4. Asia's First Industrial Giant: Japan's Strategic Pursuit.- Chapter 5. China's Millennial Pathway in a Strategic Mirror.- Chapter 6. China's Economic Performance and Strategic Pathway From the Late Qing to the Death of Mao Zedong.- Chapter 7. China's Strategic Pathway From Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping.- Chapter 8. The Xi Inheritance.- Chapter 9. China's Strategic Pursuit Under Xi Jinping and the New Era.- Chapter 10. China in the World-system: Strategic Pathways to 2100.
About the author
Huw McKay is an economist and historian who has practised as a professional forecaster for more than 20 years across the public, private and academic sectors. He has published on a wide range of issues, including economic development strategies, long run resource demand, international trade and finance, macro-financial dynamics and geopolitics. He has a PhD from the Australian National University.
