DECISION MAKING IN NATURAL RESOURC - STRUCTURED ADAPTIVE APPROACH

Informationen zum Autor MICHAEL J. CONROY is a Senior Research Scientist for the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources at the University of Georgia. He is the author of three previous books and has over thirty years' experience in the application of quantitative solutions to problems in natural resource management. He teaches workshops in modeling, statistical estimation, and structured decision making for students and professionals both in the US and internationally. JAMES T. PETERSON is the Assistant Unit Leader and Associate Professor for the USGS Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at Oregon State University. He has been developing and teaching courses in applied quantitative decision making to students and professionals working in natural resources and related disciplines for more than a decade. Klappentext This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors' experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples.Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement. Zusammenfassung Intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, as well as by students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, this book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of boxes xi Preface xiii Acknowledgements xiv Guide to using this book xv Companion website xvii PART I. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION MAKING 1 1 Introduction: Why a Structured Approach in Natural Resources? 3 The role of decision making in natural resource management 4 Common mistakes in framing decisions 5 What is structured decision making (SDM)? 6 Why should we use a structured approach to decision making? 7 Limitations of the structured approach to decision making 8 Adaptive resource management 9 Summary 10 References 10 2 Elements of Structured Decision Making 13 First steps: defining the decision problem 13 General procedures for structured decision making 15 Predictive modeling: linking decisions to objectives prospectively 17 Uncertainty and how it affects decision making 18 Dealing with uncertainty in decision making 21 Summary 23 References 23 3 Identifying and Quantifying Objectives in Natural Resource Management 24 Identifying objectives 24 Identifying fundamental and means objectives 25 Clarifying objectives 28 Separating objectives from science 29 Barriers to creative decision making 30 Types of fundamental objectives 32 Identifying decision alternatives 34 Quantifying objectives 38 Dealing with multiple objectives 38 Multi-attribute valuation 41 Utility functions 43 Other approaches 50

List of contents

List of boxes xi
 
Preface xiii
 
Acknowledgements xiv
 
Guide to using this book xv
 
Companion website xvii
 
PART I. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION MAKING 1
 
1 Introduction: Why a Structured Approach in Natural Resources? 3
 
2 Elements of Structured Decision Making 13
 
3 Identifying and Quantifying Objectives in Natural Resource Management 24
 
4 Working with Stakeholders in Natural Resource Management 57
 
PART II. TOOLS FOR DECISION MAKING AND ANALYSIS 77
 
5 Statistics and Decision Making 79
 
6 Modeling the Infl uence of Decisions 147
 
7 Identifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Decision Making 192
 
8 Methods for Obtaining Optimal Decisions 232
 
PART III. APPLICATIONS 261
 
9 Case Studies 263
 
10 Summary, Lessons Learned, and Recommendations 294
 
PART IV. APPENDICES 307
 
Appendix A Probability and Distributional Relationships 309
 
Appendix B Common Statistical Distributions 317
 
Appendix C Methods for Statistical Estimation 339
 
Appendix D Parsimony, Prediction, and Multi-Model Inference 373
 
Appendix E Mathematical Approaches to Optimization 384
 
Appendix F Guide to Software 430
 
Appendix G Electronic Companion to Book 432
 
Glossary 433
 
Index 449

Report

"I highly recommend this book to resource managers, scientists, students, and anyone who faces difficult, complex, or uncertain decisions that would benefit from adopting a structured approach to decision making." (The Journal of Wildlife Management, 8 November 2013)
 
"I highly recommend the very results oriented and working model based book Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured, Adaptive Approach by Michael J. Conroy and James T. Peterson, to any natural resource managers, scientists, government policy makers, business leaders, conservation groups, and students of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology who are seeking a complete guide to structured and effective decision making in the area of natural resource management. This book will guide leaders toward better decisions, through a more integrated examination of the real problems to find viable and effective solutions." (Blog Business World, 5 April 2013)

Product details

• Authors: Michael J Conroy, Michael J. Conroy, Michael J. (University of Georgia) Peterso Conroy, CONROY MICHAEL J PETERSON JAMES, Conroy Michael J., James T Peterson, James T. Peterson, Peterson James T.
• Publisher: Wiley, John and Sons Ltd
• Languages: English
• Product format: Paperback / Softback
• Released: 22.02.2013
• EAN: 9780470671740
• ISBN: 978-0-470-67174-0
• No. of pages: 480
• Subjects: Natural sciences, medicine, IT, technology > Biology > General, dictionaries; natürliche Ressourcen, Life Sciences, Biowissenschaften, Ressourcenmanagement, Methods & Statistics in Ecology, Ökologie / Methoden, Statistik