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Informationen zum Autor MICHAEL J. CONROY is a Senior Research Scientist for the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources at the University of Georgia. He is the author of three previous books and has over thirty years' experience in the application of quantitative solutions to problems in natural resource management. He teaches workshops in modeling, statistical estimation, and structured decision making for students and professionals both in the US and internationally. JAMES T. PETERSON is the Assistant Unit Leader and Associate Professor for the USGS Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at Oregon State University. He has been developing and teaching courses in applied quantitative decision making to students and professionals working in natural resources and related disciplines for more than a decade. Klappentext This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors' experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples.Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement. Zusammenfassung Intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, as well as by students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, this book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of boxes xi Preface xiii Acknowledgements xiv Guide to using this book xv Companion website xvii PART I. INTRODUCTION TO DECISION MAKING 1 1 Introduction: Why a Structured Approach in Natural Resources? 3 The role of decision making in natural resource management 4 Common mistakes in framing decisions 5 What is structured decision making (SDM)? 6 Why should we use a structured approach to decision making? 7 Limitations of the structured approach to decision making 8 Adaptive resource management 9 Summary 10 References 10 2 Elements of Structured Decision Making 13 First steps: defining the decision problem 13 General procedures for structured decision making 15 Predictive modeling: linking decisions to objectives prospectively 17 Uncertainty and how it affects decision making 18 Dealing with uncertainty in decision making 21 Summary 23 References 23 3 Identifying and Quantifying Objectives in Natural Resource Management 24 Identifying objectives 24 Identifying fundamental and means objectives 25 Clarifying objectives 28 Separating objectives from science 29 Barriers to creative decision making 30 Types of fundamental objectives 32 Identifying decision alternatives 34 Quantifying objectives 38 Dealing with multiple objectives 38 Multi-attribute valuation 41 Utility functions 43 Other approaches 50
