The Art of Uncertainty - How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

Life is uncertain. We are all the result of an unforeseen and unforeseeable sequence of small occurrences. But what underlies this fragile chain of events? Is it random or just complex? And what role does luck play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data in order to help understand uncertainty and assess the chances of what might happen. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.Uncertainty, he argues, is a relationship between the observer and an object in the outside world. He shows us how we can express it numerically, and then update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. In crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change, while also examining the limitations of statistical modelling and arguing we need to have the humility to admit our ignorance.Drawing on a wide range of real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable>

Report

National treasure status... Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging - without being patronising - introduction to the mathematics of the unknown The Times

Product details

• Authors: David Spiegelhalter, Spiegelhalter David
• Publisher: PELICAN
• Languages: English
• Product format: Hardback
• Released: 26.09.2024
• EAN: 9780241658628
• ISBN: 978-0-241-65862-8
• No. of pages: 512
• Dimensions: 143 mm x 223 mm x 42 mm
• Subjects: Natural sciences, medicine, IT, technology > Mathematics > Probability theory, stochastic theory, mathematical statistics; Non-fiction book > Nature, technology > Natural science; Social sciences, law, business > Media, communication > Communication science; popular science, Popular and recreational mathematics, Popular mathematics, Probability and statistics, Social research and statistics, Risk assessment