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This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era.
While intelligence is an ancient activity, the digital age is a relatively new phenomenon. This volume uses the concept of the "digital age" to highlight the increased change, complexity, and pace of information that is now circulated, as new technology has reduced the time it takes to spread news to almost nothing. These factors mean that decision-makers face an increasingly challenging threat environment, which in turn increases the demand for timely, relevant, and reliable intelligence to support policymaking. In this context, the book demonstrates that intelligence places greater demands on analysis work, as the traditional intelligence cycle is no longer adequate as a process description. In the digital age, it is not enough to accumulate as much information as possible to gain a better understanding of the world. To meet customers' needs, the intelligence process must be centred around the analysis work - which in turn has increased the demand for analysts. Assessments, not least predictions, are now just as important as revealing someone else's secrets.
This volume will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, security studies, and international relations.
List of contents
Foreword Kjell Grandhagen 1. Introduction: An old activity in a new age Stig Stenslie, Lars Haugom & Brigt Harr Vaage 2. The historical backdrop Sir David Omand 3. Intelligence as decision-making support Espen Barth Eide 4. The necessity of experts Stig Stenslie 5. Open-Source and Social Media Intelligence Bjørnar Sverdrup-Thygeson & Vegard Engesæth 6. Analysing with artificial intelligence Lars Haugom, Cato Hemmingby & Tore Pedersen 7. Warning of hybrid threats Patrick Cullen & Njord Wegge 8. Futures and forecasting Kristian C. Gustafson 9. Capturing the customer’s attention Lars Haugom 10. Avoiding politicisation Wilhelm Agrell 11. Being ethically conscious Kira Vrist Rønn 12. Conclusion: Towards an analytic-centric intelligence process Brigt Harr Vaage & Knut Magne Sundal
About the author
Stig Stenslie is Professor at the Center for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Defence Intelligence School (NORDIS), Norway.
Lars Haugom is Senior Adviser at the Norwegian Defence Establishment.
Brigt Harr Vaage is Director of Operations in the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS). He was Director of the NIS’ Analysis and Assessment Division (2014-2020).
Summary
This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era.
