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This book presents analytical methods for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to decision-makers, and the use of bivariate probability distributions to capture joint interactions between a system's cost and schedule. Analytical techniques from probability theory are stressed, along with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Numerous examples and case discussions illustrate the practical application of theoretical concepts.
About the author
Paul R. Garvey is Chief Scientist for the Center for Acquisition and Management Sciences at The MITRE Corporation. He has extensive experience in the theory and application of risk-decision analytic methods to operations research problems in the system sciences domains. He is the author of the CRC Press books Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems (with C. Ariel Pinto) and Analytical Methods for Risk Management. He earned an A.B. and M.Sc. in pure and applied mathematics from Boston College and Northeastern University and a Ph.D. in engineering systems risk analysis from Old Dominion University.
Stephen A. Book (1941–2012) was a Distinguished Engineer in the Systems Engineering Division at the Aerospace Corporation, chief technical officer at Management Consulting and Research (MCR), and emeritus professor of mathematics at California State University, Dominguez Hills. A world-renowned cost analyst, Dr. Book produced innumerable contributions to the field and made his work accessible to professionals from a variety of academic and technical backgrounds. He earned an A.B., M.A., and Ph.D. in mathematics from Georgetown University, Cornell University, and the University of Oregon, respectively.
Raymond P. Covert is the founder of Covarus LLC, a boutique consulting firm specializing in engineering and economic modeling. He has over 30 years of experience in aerospace and defense engineering and is the author of a series of books on cost and schedule estimating. He has published more than 60 technical and tutorial presentations. He earned an Sc.B. in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an M.S. in electrical engineering from Loyola Marymount University.
