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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
List of contents
Part I- Background1. Introduction2. Bubble Stories3. Crash Stories 4. Money and Credit Features
Part II- Theories Past5. Random Walks6. Rationality Rules7. Behavioral Beats
Part III- Theories Present and Future8. Bubble Dynamics9. Behavioral Risk Features10. Estimating and Forecasting
Part IV- Round Up11. Financial Asset Bubble Theory
