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Zusatztext "An important! original! and timely book-richly detailed and beautifully thought out." -Jack A. Goldstone! University of California! Davis Informationen zum Autor Peter Turchin is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. He is the author of Quantitative Analysis of Movement and Complex Population Dynamics (Princeton). Klappentext Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics. Zusammenfassung Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. It investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of Figures viii List of Tables x Preface xi Chapter 1. Statement of the Problem 1 1.1 Why Do We Need a Mathematical Theory in History? 1 1.2 Historical Dynamics as a Research Program 3 1.2.1 Delimiting the Set of Questions 4 1.2.2 AFocus on Agrarian Polities 4 1.2.3 The Hierarchical Modeling Approach 5 1.2.4 Mathematical Framework 5 1.3 Summary 7 Chapter 2. Geopolitics 9 2.1 APrimer of Dynamics 9 2.1.1 Boundless Growth 9 2.1.2 Equilibrial Dynamics 11 2.1.3 Boom/Bust Dynamics and Sustained Oscillations 12 2.1.4 Implications for Historical Dynamics 14 2.2 The Collins Theory of Geopolitics 16 2.2.1 Modeling Size and Distance Effects 16 2.2.2 Positional Effects 20 2.2.3 Conflict-legitimacy Dynamics 23 2.3 Conclusion: Geopolitics as a First-order Process 25 2.4 Summary 27 Chapter 3. Collective Solidarity 29 3.1 Groups in Sociology 29 3.1.1 Groups as Analytical Units 29 3.1.2 Evolution of Solidaristic Behaviors 31 3.1.3 Ethnic Groups and Ethnicity 33 3.1.4 The Social Scale 34 3.1.5 Ethnies 36 3.2 Collective Solidarity and Historical Dynamics 36 3.2.1 Ibn Khaldun's Theory 38 3.2.2 Gumilev's Theory 40 3.2.3 The Modern Context 42 3.3 Summary 47 Chapter 4. The Metaethnic Frontier Theory 50 4.1 Frontiers as Incubators of Group Solidarity 50 4.1.1 Factors Causing Solidarity Increase 51 4.1.2 Imperial Boundaries and Metaethnic Fault Line...
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Peter Turchin
