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Ralph Birchmeier argues that an optimal portfolio-building strategy means patiently waiting for the few investments worthy of capital allocation. He outlines the principles required for success then examines specific reasons to pass on investments, detailing behavioral biases that disrupt optimal decision making.
List of contents
Part I. Principles and More
Introduction
1. Reasons to Pass: Investment Principles
2. Main Street Versus Wall Street: A Rigged Market?
3. Fundamental Analysis in the Digital Age
4. Indexing: A Viable Option
Part II. Reasons to Pass
Introduction
5. Minimum Market Capitalization
6. Financial Leverage: The Ultimate Killer
7. High–Fixed Cost Businesses
8. Accounting
9. Regulatory Uncertainty
10. Corporate Governance
11. Asset Liability Mismatch
12. Deep Cyclical Companies Near Cycle Peak
13. High-Cost Commodity Businesses
14. Cash Flow and Earnings Disconnect
15. Structurally Declining Businesses
16. Obsolescence Risk
17. Valuation: A Critical Protector of Capital and Returns
18. Lollapalooza Effect
Part III. Reasons to Buy
Introduction
19. Screening
20. Growth Stocks
21. Core Characteristics of Successful Investors
22. Viable, and Buyable, Investment Opportunities
23. Selling Discipline
Conclusion
Index
About the author
Ralph Birchmeier was a CPA, became a CFA charterholder, and worked at Brandes Investment Partners LP as a global equity analyst and investment committee member for nearly twenty years, building global equity portfolios. Today, he is a private investor and guest lecturer on accounting, finance, and valuation.
Summary
Confidence and conviction are the keys to success in asset management. Analysts projecting these traits become more likely candidates for promotion; clients gravitate to portfolio managers who radiate assurance about future performance. However, these qualities do a disservice to optimal decision making and long-term investment performance. The future is too complex to justify such levels of confidence.
In Reasons to Pass, the seasoned practitioner Ralph Birchmeier argues that an optimal portfolio-building strategy means patiently waiting for the few investments worthy of capital allocation. He outlines the principles required for success then examines specific reasons to pass on investments, detailing behavioral biases that disrupt optimal decision making. Although professional and retail investors alike are tempted by various opportunities, the wisdom of experience proves the value of prudence. An investing strategy built to last requires humility and the willingness to accept uncertainty; most of the time, it’s best to pass.
Reasons to Pass brings investing back to the basics, helping readers navigate the complexity of the financial landscape and bringing clarity to the investment process. By underscoring the perils of overconfidence and the importance of humility, this book offers invaluable new perspective on investing for the long term.
