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List of contents
About the Authors xv
Acknowledgments xvii
Foreword xix
Introduction 1 The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized 2
Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo 4
Where Is My Crystal Ball? 4
Trillion-Dollar Platforms 6
Changing Wheels While the Car Is Running 7
Dealing with Chaos 8
Uncertainty Must Be Managed 8
The Premise Behind SPX 9
How This Book Is Organized 11
Section One 15 Chapter 1 The New Context for Our Future 17 The Future Is Not Your Brain's Priority 18
Exponentials Make Fools of Humans 19
The Phases of Exponential Progression 19
The Exponential Explosion 22
Moore's Law: The Observation that Changed the World 24
Chapter 2 Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends 27 Megatrends 29
Hyper Global Connectivity 29 A Longer and Healthier Life 30 Augmented and Virtual Worlds 31 Abundance 32 Upgraded Transportation 33 Instant Personalization 34 Digitization of Work 34 Automated Shopping 35 Radical Interfaces 36 Sustainable Environment 36 Exponential Platforms 37
Artificial Intelligence 37 Networks and Blockchain 41 Biotechnology 43 Quantum Computing 44 Internet of Things 44 3D Printing 45 Robotics 46 Material Science 47 Chapter 3 Animals of the Exponential Kingdom 49 Flash Boiled Frogs 49
Nokia 50 Blockbuster 51 Disruptive
Unicorns 52
Airbnb 52 ByteDance 53 Fast and Furious Gazelles 55
Uber 55 Netflix 56 Dancing Elephants 58
IBM 59 Microsoft 60 Dominating Gorillas 61
Google 61 Amazon 62 Section Two 65 Chapter 4 Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era 67 Convergence Research and Strategic Planning 68
The Manifesto that Changed How Software Is Built 69
Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop 71
Thinking Like a Designer 72
Getting Inside the Opponent's Head with OODA 73
A New Approach to Strategic Planning 74
Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX 75
Chapter 5 Detecting Early Signals 79 If It Is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value 80
Research and Observation 83
Removing Barriers to Information Flow 84
Access Is the Name of the Game 86
Dealing with Uncertainty 87
Conducting Research 88
Predictive Analytics 90
Timing Analysis 92
Chapter 6 Learning from Experiments 95 Divergence and Convergence 96
Starting with Divergence 97
Moving into Convergence 99
Short Experiments 101
Risks and Opportunities Identification 104
Embracing Chaos and Bad News 105
Chapter 7 Capabilities - The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve 107 Determine Capabilities 108
People 109 Process 112 Technology 115 Market 116 Capital 119 Develop Risk-Opportunity-Capability Map 120
Develop Priority List 122
Chapter 8 Feedback-Based Strategic Decisions 125 Determine Scale and Scope 127
Explore Highest Priorities 130
Gather Data and Feedback 132
Scale or Terminate Initiatives 134
Chapter 9 Leading a Culture of Change 137 Exploration versus Exploitation - the Innovator's Dilemma 139
Amplifying Flow Through the Organization 141
Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point 142
Knowing When to Quit 143
Executive Engagement 145
Culture and Behaviors 147
Judgment 148 Curiosity 148 Innovation 148 Integrity 149 Section Three 151 Chapter 10 The Exponential Human - Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World 153 The Workless Society 154
Education Reinvented 156
Global Synchronous Communications 159
New Ethics for a New Era 161
For My Children 163
A Discussion About The Use of The Term Exponential 165
Notes and References 167
Index 175
About the author
DAVID ESPINDOLA is a Partner at Intercepting Horizons and an Advisory Board member of the Technological Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota. As a former Chief Information Officer and consulting leader, he has developed global technology strategies and successfully implemented business transformation programs.
MICHAEL W. WRIGHT is a Partner of Intercepting Horizons and the author of the acclaimed
New Business Normal, a former C-suite global high-tech executive at scale and an active board member. He is a University of Minnesota Sr. Fellow, Chairman Emeritus of the Advisory Board for the UMN Technological Leadership Institute, and formerly an adjunct professor at Carlson School of Management where he taught strategic leadership.
