Read more
The purpose of this research was to combine past-focused geopolitical analysis with future-oriented scenario planning to enhance the foresight of interested political, business and military leaders on the regional security environment in the Inter-marium (from the Baltic Sea to the Wider Black Sea) over the next decade. This research included an assessment of the recent geopolitical and strategic situation, taking into account the security interests, risks and strategies of the relevant international actors. Major regional processes with potential strategic impact were also considered. This assessment provided an extensive catalogue of drivers of change and external forces which would be relevant for the region over the next decade. Each of the four scenarios considered by this research (Inter-marium Alliance: New American Containment; Buffer Zone: Power Sharing and Limited/Controlled Stand-off; Western Decline: European and Transatlantic Unity Broken; Regional Chaos: Turning Confrontation into War) have been developed upon a unique combination of those drivers of change and external forces, and tested against an example of national security planning process.
About the author
Mr. Niculescu is originally from Bucharest, Romania, and is currently the Head of Research at the European Geopolitical Forum (http://gpf-europe.com). He is also one of the co-Chairs of the Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes (PfPC).
