Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations - Macroeconomics Meets Psychology

A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.

List of contents

1. Patterns and expectations; 2. Extrapolation and expectations; 3. Eliciting expectations under laboratory conditions; 4. Features of the laboratory data; 5. Similarity matching and scaling the experimental data; 6. Pattern extrapolation and expectations measured by consumer surveys; 7. Heterogeneity and uncertainty of inflation expectations; 8. Inflation dynamics; 9. Explaining the course of interest rates; 10. Generalizing the pattern-based approach; 11. A detour to income expectations; 12. The Fisher effect in historical times; 13. Expectations of high inflation; 14. The Fisher effect in Asian economies; 15. The Fisher effect in African economies; 16. Estimates of expected inflation for major economies; 17. Estimates of expected real interest rates for major economies; Epilogue.

About the author

Tobias F. Rötheli is Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Erfurt.

Summary

This book offers a modern behavioral economics analysis of macroeconomic expectations, using cognitive psychology and a bottom-up approach to economic expectations. It gives students and researchers a quantitative model for analyzing inflation, interest rates and business cycle phenomena for any country or historical period.

Additional text

'Rötheli's book was long overdue. Ever since Katona, the significance of expectations for modeling the economy has been known. The last few decades saw the recognition of the importance of empirical psychological study of economic behavior, as opposed to a perspective centered on derivation from first principles. Rötheli investigates how expectations are formed, and analyzes the consequences of his findings for key economic domains. The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations should be read by anyone who needs to understand economic forecasting by the public.' David Leiser, Ben Gurion University of the Negev

Product details

• Authors: Tobias (Universitat Erfurt Roetheli, Tobias F. (Universitat Erfurt Roetheli, Tobias Rötheli, Tobias F Rötheli, Tobias F. Rötheli
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press ELT
• Languages: English
• Product format: Paperback / Softback
• Released: 31.08.2020
• EAN: 9781108447065
• ISBN: 978-1-108-44706-5
• No. of pages: 243
• Subjects: Social sciences, law, business > Business > General, dictionaries; Economics, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Econometrics, macroeconomics, Economic statistics, Behavioural economics, Monetary Economics, Econometrics, BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Social & Behavioral, Econometrics and economic statistics