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"Jenkins' rare combination of psychological theorizing and archival research in several countries and time periods yields a fascinating new take on the central question of when states over-estimate or under-estimate others' resolve. The biases that leaders and elites fall prey to appear to vary with their emotional states and senses of well-being, factors that most scholars have ignored."-Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen Think
This groundbreaking book explains how the happiness levels of leaders, politicians and diplomats affect their assessments of the resolve of their state's adversaries and allies. Its innovative methodology includes case studies of the origins of twelve wars with Anglo-American involvement from 1853 to 2003 and the psycholinguistic text mining of the British Hansard and the U.S. Congressional Record.
List of contents
1. Introduction.- 2. Explanatory Style Explained.- 3. Theories of Reputation for Resolve - from Thucydides to Prospect Theory.- 4. Text Mining the British Hansard.- 5. Text Mining the U.S. Congressional Record.- 6. The Four Crises Leading to the First World War.- 7. The Appeasement of Nazi Germany.- 8. The Crimean War versus the Suez Crisis.- 9. The Falkland Islands War versus the Spanish-American War.- 10. Pearl Harbor.- 11. The Korean War versus the Gulf War.- 12. The Vietnam War versus the Iraq War.- 13. The Yom Kippur War and the Soviet-Afghan War.- 14. Donald Trump and the Future of American Foreign Policy: Syria, Iran and North Korea.- 15. The Leader and the Emotional Climate.- 16. Conclusion.
About the author
Peter S. Jenkins is Adjunct Professor at Osgoode Hall Law School of York University in Toronto, Canada, and recently taught in the Faculty of Law of Monash University in Prato, Italy. He is a member of the State Bar of California.
Summary
“Jenkins’ rare combination of psychological theorizing and archival research in several countries and time periods yields a fascinating new take on the central question of when states over-estimate or under-estimate others’ resolve. The biases that leaders and elites fall prey to appear to vary with their emotional states and senses of well-being, factors that most scholars have ignored.”—Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen ThinkThis groundbreaking book explains how the happiness levels of leaders, politicians and diplomats affect their assessments of the resolve of their state’s adversaries and allies. Its innovative methodology includes case studies of the origins of twelve wars with Anglo-American involvement from 1853 to 2003 and the psycholinguistic text mining of the British Hansard and the U.S. Congressional Record.
