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Zusatztext "This is certainly the best book on credit risk available on the market for academics and practitioners. I recommend the book to academics and professionals, and also for the teaching of credit risk at Masters and PhD levels." ---Georges Dionne, Journal of Risk and Insurance Informationen zum Autor Darrell Duffie is the James Irvin Miller Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. His books include Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory (Princeton) and Futures Markets (Prentice-Hall). Kenneth J. Singleton is the C.O.G. Miller Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He is the author of numerous articles in professional journals and an editor of the Review of Financial Studies . Klappentext In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students. Zusammenfassung Offers a treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. This book models credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. It is intended as a resource for researchers and students. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii 1. Introduction 1 1.1. A Brief Zoology of Risks 3 1.2. Organization of Topics 7 2. Economic Principles of Risk Management 12 2.1. What Types of Risk Count Most?13 2.2. Economics of Market Risk 15 2.3. Economic Principles of Credit Risk 26 2.4. Risk Measurement 29 2.5. Measuring Credit Risk 38 3. Default Arrival: Historical Patterns and Statistical Models 43 3.1. Introduction 43 3.2. Structural Models of Default Probability 53 3.3. From Theor to Practice: Using Distance to Default to Predict Default 57 3.4. Default Intensity 59 3.5. Examples of Intensity Models 64 3.6. Default-Time Simulation 72 3.7. Statistical Prediction of Bankruptcy 74 4. Ratings Transitions: Historical Patterns and Statistical Models 85 4.1. A...
