Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

Thisvolume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling.Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process iscritical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating suchuncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty inarchaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodologicalorientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification andmitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. Thechapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is noquick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensiveconsideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration andvalidation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematicmanner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims toprovide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distillingsome basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in thecase studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendantuncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and willappeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be ofinterest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty wheninterpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for thedevelopment of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.

 

List of contents

Preface.- Chapter 1:Introduction (MariekaBrouwer Burg, J.H.M. Peeters, and William A. Lovis).- Chapter 2: IsThere a Research Design Role for Sensitivity Analysis (SA) in Archaeological Modeling? (WilliamA. Lovis).- Chapter 3: EpistemicConsiderations About Uncertainty and Model Selection in ComputationalArchaeology: A Case Study on Exploratory Modeling (J.H.M. Peeters and Jan-Willem Romeijn).- Chapter 4: GIS-BasedModeling of Archaeological Dynamics (GMAD): Weaknesses, Strengths, and theUtility of Sensitivity Analysis (Marieka Brouwer Burg).- Chapter 5: Assessing Nonlinear Behaviors in anAgent Based Model (Jon W. Carroll).- Chapter 6: ScaleDependency in Agent-Based Modeling: How Many Time Steps? How Many Simulations?How Many Agents? (Joshua Watts).- Chapter 7: TheSensitivity of Demographic Characteristics to the Strength of the PopulationStabilizing Mechanism in a Model Hunter-Gatherer System(Andrew A. White).- Chapter 8: ArchaeologicalSimulation and the Testing Paradigm (Thomas G. Whitley).- Chapter 9: "Uncertainties" (Sander van der Leeuw). 
           

About the author

Marieka Brouwer Burg(Ph.D. 2011
Michigan State University)is
Lecturer of Anthropology in the Department of Anthropology at the University of
New Hampshire, New Hampshire, USA. She is interested in the effects of
landscape evolution and climate change on human communities, as well as
reconstructing decision processes and perceptions of landscape in the past. She
uses GIS-based archaeological computational modeling to explore these processes
in both Old and New World contexts. Her current research focuses on investigating
the spatiotemporal dimensions of ancient Maya mobility and socioeconomic
interactions in the central Belize River Valley, Belize.
J.H.M. Peeters (Ph.D. 2007 University of Amsterdam) is Associate Professor of Prehistoric Archaeology at the Groningen Institute of Archaeology, University of Groningen.  Research interests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; Landscape Archaeology; Lithic Technology; Computational Modeling; Site Formation Dynamics and Fractal Geometry.  Current research projects include Late Glacial and Holocene Hunter-Gatherer Landscape Use of the North Sea Basin; Mesolithic Lithic Technology; Hunter-Gatherer Pyro-Technology; Dynamics of Intra-Site Spatial Patterning.
William A. Lovis (Ph.D. 1973 Michigan
State University) is Professor and Curator of Anthropology in the Department of
Anthropology and MSU Museum at Michigan State University, Michigan, USA. His research
interests include Hunter-Gatherer Archaeology and Ethnography; The Transition
to Horticulture; Applied Theory, Analytic Methods and Research Design; Human-Environment
Interactions and Regional Taphonomy; Paleoenvironmental Change; Public Policy
including Forensic Archaeology, Law Enforcement Training, and Repatriation; Great
Lakes/Midwest and Europe. Current research projects include archaeological site
taphonomy and preservation in the Lake Michigan coastal dunes, Mesolithic
regional settlement and mobility in Yorkshire, northern England, and hemispheric
climate impacts on Great Lakes coastal dune evolution and activation cycling.

Summary

This
volume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling.
Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process is
critical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating such
uncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty in
archaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodological
orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification and
mitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. The
chapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is no
quick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensive
consideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration and
validation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematic
manner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims to
provide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distilling
some basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in the
case studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendant
uncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and will
appeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be of
interest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty when
interpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for the
development of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.

 

Product details

• Assisted by: William A Lovis (Editor), Marieka Brouwer Burg (Editor), William A. Lovis (Editor), Han Peeters (Editor), Hans Peeters (Editor)
• Publisher: Springer, Berlin
• Languages: English
• Product format: Paperback / Softback
• Released: 01.01.2018
• EAN: 9783319802251
• ISBN: 978-3-31-980225-1
• No. of pages: 175
• Dimensions: 155 mm x 10 mm x 235 mm
• Weight: 301 g
• Illustrations: XVI, 175 p. 31 illus., 7 illus. in color.
• Series: Interdisciplinary Contributions to Archaeology; Interdisciplinary Contributions to Archaeology
• Subject: Humanities, art, music > History > Antiquity