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"At the heart of much work in international relations is the attempt to understand why citizens and leaders act as they do-and over the last decade, a growing body of research has shown that the "rational choice theory" that has long guided this understanding is insufficient. People do not always behave rationally; instead, most of us have psychological biases that cause us to behave "irrationally." As political science has integrated this new behavioral research, the literature has tended to view such biases as source of errors or mistakes. Yet for other fields-most notably evolutionary biology-the same psychological biases are recognized as adaptive heuristics that evolved to improve our decision-making, not to undermine it. In this book, Johnson uses his cross-disciplinary training to push this evolutionary understanding of biases into the study of politics. Specifically, he asks: when and how can psychological biases cause or promote success in the realm of international relations? Johnson focuses on three of the most prominent psychological biases-overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error (the tendency to see others' actions as motivated by personality rather than the influence of external/situational factors) and in-group/out-group bias (favoring members of group one identifies with over those one does not). He outlines the scientific research on each bias, explores its adaptive advantages, and then gives detailed historical examples where the bias seems to have caused strategic advantages, focusing on the American Revolution (overconfidence), the UK and the appeasement of Hitler (fundamental attribution error) and the Pacific campaign in WW2 (group bias). He then circles back to acknowledge the "dark side" of biases when taken to the extreme, considering how confidence becomes hubris, the attribution error becomes paranoia and group bias becomes racism. Ultimately, Johnson argues that this evolutionary perspective is the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on the foundational questions in the field"--
About the author
Dominic D. P. Johnson is the Alistair Buchan Professor of International Relations at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. He is the author of God Is Watching You and Overconfidence and War and the coauthor of Failing to Win.
Summary
How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations
A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.
Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.
Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.
Additional text
"Johnson’s work furthers our understanding of how adaptive traits of human psychology that evolved over the millenniums yield competitive advantages in modern times."---Ziyuan Wang, China International Strategy Review
