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Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate. This book will appeal to a wide readership of both academics and professionals working in the energy industry, as well as to general readers interested in the ongoing debate about oil prices.
List of contents
Acknowledgements; 1. Introduction and overview; Part I. Oil's Extraordinary Price History: How Can It Be Explained?: 2. The price of oil since the early 1970s: observations and implications; 3. OPEC and its behavior cannot explain oil's price performance; 4. Can depletion and rising costs explain the price developments?; 5. State ownership, government greed and the slowdown of capacity expansion; 6. The resource curse and capacity destruction; Part II. The Shale and Conventional Oil Revolutions: Low Prices Ahead: 7. The shale revolution: US achievements to date and envisaged impacts on global energy markets; 8. Longevity of US shale oil: have we only seen the beginning?; 9. The conventional oil revolution; 10. Environmental issues arising from the revolutions; 11. Will the revolutions spread globally?; 12. A substantial long-term price fall in store; Part III. Global Implications for the Macroeconomy, the Environment and for Politics: 13. Impact on macroeconomy and trade balances; 14. Climate policy with low oil prices; 15. Political repercussions; Conclusions: 16. What have we learnt?; References; Index.
About the author
Roberto F. Aguilera is an adjunct research fellow at Curtin University, Australia, and an associate of Servipetrol Ltd, Canada. He has participated in numerous energy studies, including with the World Petroleum Council, US National Petroleum Council, and UN Expert Group on Resource Classification.Marian Radetzki is Professor of Economics at Luleå University of Technology, Sweden. He has held visiting professorships at Colorado School of Mines, and at Pontificia Catholic University of Chile, researching on minerals and energy. In the 1970s, Professor Radetzki worked as Chief Economist at the International Copper Cartel, and has undertaken numerous consultancies over the years.
Summary
Written for a broad readership, this book provides an in-depth examination of oil's extraordinary price increase over the past few decades. The authors explain why we are at a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels.
Additional text
Advance praise: 'If there is one book to read to understand how oil has been priced over the past half century and how it is likely to be priced over the next half century this is it. Aguilera and Radetzki have produced a tour de force. In simple English they have summarized the disruptive implications of the shale revolutions - hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling - on unleashing supplies at lower costs that will continue to wreak havoc with the petro-states of the world and define not just the geopolitics of oil but the politics of climate change and a host of other macro- economic issues for decades to come. Their out-of-the box dramatic conclusions about low prices for years to come are based on transparent assumptions and modeling, and in the process they manage to tackle the major strands of energy economics over the last fifty years in a manner that will be meaningful to the lay public and both meaningfully challenging and controversial for experts.' Edward L. Morse, Head of Commodities Research, Citibank
