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The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe.
The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures.
The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
List of contents
Acknowledgements.- 1: Introduction: Marek Kupiszewski.- PART I: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - POLICIES, THEORIES, TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS.- 2: Migration policy in the European perspective: a primer for forecasters: Anna Kicinger.- 3: The use of international migration theories in migration forecasting - a practical approach: Marek Kupiszewski, Jakub Bijak, Anna Kicinger.- 4: Recent trends in international migration in Europe prior to 2002: Jakub Bijak, Marek Kupiszewski.- 5: International migration scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak, Anna Kicinger, Marek Kupiszewski.- PART II: PAST AND FUTURE OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN EUROPE.- 6.: Fertility scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak.- 7: Mortality scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak.- PART III: HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ASSUMPTIONS ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN EUROPE.- 8: Models and factors of labour force participation - theoretical and empirical considerations: Katarzyna Saczuk.- 9: Historical trends in labour force participation in Europe (1985-2002): Katarzyna Saczuk.- 10: Scenarios of labour force participation for 27 European countries 2002-2052: Kararzyna Saczuk.- PART IV: FUTURES OF EUROPEAN POPULATIONS AND LABOUR FORCE.- 11: Population and labour force dynamics model: Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski.- The futures of European populations and labour force, 2002-2052: Jakub Bijak, Dorota Kupiszewski, Marek Kupiszewski, Katarzyna Saczuk.- PART V: BEYOND OF REPLACEMENT MIGRATION: RESULTS OF POPULAITON AND LABOUR FORCE SIMULATIONS: 13: A development and critique of the concept of replacement migration: Katarzyna Saczuk.- 14: Population ageing, population decline and replacement migration in Europe (Jakub Bijak, Dorota Kupiszewska, Marek Kupiszewski, Katarzyna Saczuk.- PART VI: CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE RESULTS AND POLICY IMPACT: 15: Critical assessment of the labour force evolution in Europe: Elzbieta Krynska.- 16:Demography rules in pension systems: Marek Gora.- 17: Recommendations for European social and population policies: Jakub Bijak.- 18: References.
Summary
The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe.
The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures.
The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
