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I Principles 1 1 Models of Systems 3 1. 1 Systems. Models. and Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 2 Uses of Scientific Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. 3 Example: Island Biogeography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1. 4 Classifications of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1. 5 Constraints on Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 6 Some Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 7 Misuses of Models: The Dark Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1. 8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 The Modeling Process 17 2. 1 Models Are Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. 2 Two Alternative Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3 An Example: Population Doubling Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. 4 Model Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2. 5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 Qualitative Model Formulation 32 3. 1 How to Eat an Elephant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3. 2 Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3. 3 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3. 4 Errors in Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 6 Principles of Qualitative Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3. 7 Model Simplification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3. 8 Other Modeling Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 viii Contents . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. 9 Exercises 53 4 Quantitative Model Formulation: I 4. 1 From Qualitative to Quantitative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finite Difference Equations and Differential Equations 4. 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 3 Biological Feedback in Quantitative Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 4 Example Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 5 Exercises 5 Quantitative Model Formulation: I1 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 1 Physical Processes 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 2 Using the Toolbox of Biological Processes 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 3 Useful Functions 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 4 Examples 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 5 Exercises 104 6 Numerical Techniques 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 1 Mistakes Computers Make 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 2 Numerical Integration 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 3 Numerical Instability and Stiff Equations 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
List of contents
Principles.- Models of Systems.- The Modeling Process.- Qualitative Model Formulation.- Quantitative Model Formulation: I.- Quantitative Model Formulation: II.- Numerical Techniques.- Parameter Estimation.- Model Validation.- Model Analysis: Uncertainty and Behavior.- Stochastic Models.- Applications.- Photosynthesis and Plant Growth.- Hormonal Control in Mammals.- Populations and Individuals.- Chemostats.- Diseases.- Spatial Patterns and Processes.- Scaling Models.- Chaos in Biology.- Cellular Automata and Recursive Growth.- Evolutionary Computation.
Summary
2 Uses of Scientific Models . 4 Classifications of Models . 5 Constraints on Model Structure . 1 Models Are Problems . 4 Model Objectives . 3 Biological Feedback in Quantitative Models . 4 Example Model . 5 Exercises 5 Quantitative Model Formulation: I1 81 . 3 Numerical Instability and Stiff Equations 115 .
