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The book addresses a weakness of current methodologies used in extreme value assessment, i.e. the assumption of stationarity, which is not given in reality. With respect to this issue a lot of new developed technologies are presented, i.e. influence of trends vs. internal correlations, quantitative uncertainty assessments, etc. The book not only focuses on artificial time series data, but has a close link to empirical measurements, in order to make the suggested methodologies applicable for practitioners in water management and meteorology.
List of contents
Part I. General.- The Threat of Climate Extremes: The Need of New Assessment Methodologies.- Intense Precipitation and High Floods - Observations and Projections.- Wavelet Spectral and Cross Spectral Analysis.- Part II. Extremes and Trend Detection.- Trend Detection in River Floods.- Extreme Value Analysis Considering Trends.- Extreme Value and Trend Analysis based on Statistical Modelling of Precipitation Time Series.- Part III. Extremes and Correlations.- The statistics of Return Intervals, Maxima and Centennial Events under the Influence of Long-Term Correlations.- Detrended Fluctuation Studies of Long-Term Persistence and Multifractality of Precipitation and River Runoff Records.- Extraction of Long-term Structures from Southern German Runoff Data by Means of Linear and Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction.- Part IV. Assessing Uncertainty.- The Bootstrap in Climate Risk Analysis.- Flood Level Confidence Intervals.- A Review on the Pettitt-Test.- Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records.- Part V. Spatial Issues.- Regional Determination of Historical Heavy Rain for Reconstruction of Extreme Flood Events.- Development of Regional Flood Frequency Relationships for Gauged and Ungauged Catchments Using L-Moments.- Spatial Correlations of River Runoffs in a Catchment
About the author
Dr. J. Kropp, Senior scientist at PIK, he studied chemistry and physics and in 1992 he took a diploma in theoretical chemistry at the University of Oldenburg. From 1993-1998 he was research fellow at PIK, from 1998-2001 project leader of a research project on costal zone management at the Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, and from 2001 research analyst and member of staff of the German Advisory Council on Global Change to the Federal Government (WBGU). His research interests are the development of methods for integrated impact assessments, in particular, with respect to vulnerability, risk assessment, and adaptation to climate change and in the context of decision making and various institutional settings.§He leads several European joint projects (e.g. disaster and risk assessment) and has published numerous papers.
Hans J. Schellnhuber ist Gründer und Direktor des Potsdam-Instituts für Klimafolgenforschung und Professor für Theoretische Physik an der Universität Potsdam. Er ist Mitglied in einer Reihe deutscher und internationaler wissenschaftlicher Gremien wie des 2007 mit dem Nobelpreis ausgezeichneten Weltklimarats IPCC und Vorsitzender des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU).
