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Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined on the basis of numerous courses that the authors have held for practitioners worldwide.
List of contents
Introduction.- Networks.- Probabilities.- Probabilistic Networks.- Solving Probabilistic Networks.- Eliciting the Model.- Modeling Techniques.- Data-Driven Modeling.- Conflict Analysis.- Sensitivity Analysis.- Value of Information Analysis.- Quick Reference to Model Construction.- List of Examples.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.- List of Symbols.- References.- Index.
About the author
Uffe B. Kjærulff holds a PhD on probabilistic networks and is an Associate Professor of Computer Science at Aalborg University. Anders L. Madsen of HUGIN EXPERT A/S holds a PhD on probabilistic networks and is an Adjunct Professor of Computer Science at Aalborg University.
Summary
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined on the basis of numerous courses that the authors have held for practitioners worldwide.
Additional text
From the book reviews:
“The monograph concentrates on intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic models, including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. … This monograph provides a review of recent state affairs of probabilistic networks that can be useful for professionals, practitioners, and researchers from diverse fields of statistics and related disciplines. I think it can be used as a textbook in its own right for an upper level undergraduate course, especially for a reading course.” (Technometrics, Vol. 55 (2), May, 2013)
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From the book reviews:
"The monograph concentrates on intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic models, including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. ... This monograph provides a review of recent state affairs of probabilistic networks that can be useful for professionals, practitioners, and researchers from diverse fields of statistics and related disciplines. I think it can be used as a textbook in its own right for an upper level undergraduate course, especially for a reading course." (Technometrics, Vol. 55 (2), May, 2013)
