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This book presents a collection of contributions to a workshop on "Long-teY'fr/ Development of NATO's Conventional Forrward Defense" to which the GERMAN STRATEGY FORUM (DSF*» had invited some 50 systems analysts and defense experts of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany and the SHAPE Technical Centre. Held in Bonn from 2 to 4 December 1984, this workshop was to provide a forum for the dis cussion, at a non-political expert level and in the light of available analysis results, of proposals for the improvement of NATO's conventional defense capabilities. In addition, it aimed at arriving at some recommenda tions as to which of these proposals deserve to be studied further and what methodological deficiencies must be alleviated and information gaps closed for an adequate assessment. The idea to organize this workshop has been discussed ever since 1980 with several defense systems analysts in the US and the UK who shared the opinion that, with a view to the immense global build-up of the Soviet threat on one hand and the stringency of defense resources in most NATO countries on the other, there is no reason that could permit us to dismiss any proposal promising improvement without careful study.
List of contents
Rationale and Structure of the Workshop on 'Long-term Development of NATO's Conventional Forward Defense'.- I Basic Premises for the Evaluation.- The Nuclear Relationship: Conventional Defense and Nuclear Posture in the Strategy of Deterrence.- Criteria for the Evaluation of Conventional Forces and Quantification.- II Conceptual Approaches to the Assessment of Alternatives.- Game-structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning.- Assessing Alternative Strategic Concepts.- System Dynamics as a Conceptual Framework for Long-term Defence Planning Initiatives.- III Analysis of Improvement Proposals.- Analyzing Alternative Concepts for the Defense of NATO.- On Reactive Defense Options - A Comparative Systems Analysis of Alternatives for the Initial Defense against the First Strategic Echelon of the Warsaw Pact in Central Europe.- Some Long-term Trends in Force Structuring.- IV Assessment Group Summaries.- Military Rational and Operational Robustness: The Impact of Emerging Technology and Experimental Tactics on the Future of Infantry.- Politico-Military Assessment.- Technology Implications.- Economic Implications, Cost and Manpower.- Assessment Methodology and Modelling.- Workshop Participants.
