Regional Forecasting on Labour Markets

Regional Forecasting on labour markets is a regional approach to generate data about future developments that cover adequately the information needs of labour market actors. Approaches from different European regions are presented in this book. Furthermore, the central elements of these approaches are discussed with respect to their problems in data and / or methodology. Some solutions are discussed within the different models presented. This book was developed by several members of the European Network of Regional Labour Market Monitoring.

List of contents

1;Foreword;7
2;Contents;9
3;List of Figures;10
4;List of Tables;12
5;I Introduction;13
6;II Local and Sub-regional medium-term skills forecasting in the UK;19
6.1;1 Introduction;19
6.2;2 Local Forecasting Needs and Problems;21
6.3;3 The Philosophy Behind LEFM;26
6.4;4 The Structure of LEFM;27
6.5;5 Detailed Methodology;33
6.6;6 Some Examples of the Application of LEFM;37
6.7;7 Conclusions;39
6.8;References;40
6.9;Appendix A: Details of Data Generation Process;41
7;III Regional Labour Market Forecasts in the Netherlands;44
7.1;1 Introduction;44
7.2;2 The national model of occupational and educational demand;45
7.3;3 From national to regional level;47
7.4;4 Use of the Data: RATIO II;54
7.5;5 Prospects and Outlook;56
7.6;References;57
8;IV Forecasting System for the Development of Employment and Qualifications in the Metropolitan Region Frankfurt/Rhine-Main;58
8.1;1 Introduction;58
8.2;2 Concept;59
8.3;3 Forecasting the labour demand;60
8.4;4 Forecasting the regional labour supply;66
8.5;5 Outlook;72
8.6;References;73
9;V Regional Employment Forecasts with Spatial Interdependencies;74
9.1;1 Introduction;74
9.2;2 Data and Regional Variation in Employment in Germany;75
9.3;3 Applied Forecast Methodology;78
9.4;4 Results and Discussion;83
9.5;5 Conclusion;92
9.6;References;93
10;VI Forecasting Regional Employment by Time-Series Modeling;95
10.1;1 Introduction;95
10.2;2 Methodology;95
10.3;3 Regional Employment Development 2001 - 2010;107
10.4;4 Forecast Errors;113
10.5;References;117
11;VII A Two-Step Approach for Regional Medium-Term Skill Needs Fore-casting;120
11.1;1 Introduction;120
11.2;2 A Two-Step Approach for Regional Medium-Term Skill Needs Forecasting;121
12;VIII Evolving Occupations, an Approach at the Heart of the Futurefor French Regions;140
12.1;1 The observatory's approach to regional analysis and prospects;141
12.2;2 Examples of results obtained;150
12.3;3 Use of prospective approaches in the technical and institutional running;152
13;IX AMS-Skills Barometer - Austria's Target Group oriented Labour Market Information System;154
13.1;1 Background Information;154
13.2;2 Methodology and Basic Structure;156
13.3;3 Regional Forecasts in the AMS-Skills Barometer;165
13.4;4 Further Developments concerning the AMS-Skills Barometer;167
14;X The Systems for the Early Identification of Skills Needs in Ireland;168
14.1;1 Introduction;168
14.2;2 The Institutional Framework.;168
14.3;3 Methodologies for collecting and analysing data.;170
14.4;4 The Outputs from the System;171
14.5;5 Other Outputs from the National Skills Database;172
14.6;6 The Role of Sectoral Studies in the System;175
14.7;7 Conclusions;176
15;XI Outlook;178
16;XII About the Authors;180
17;XIII Abstract;187

About the author

Claudia Knobel is an economist and senior researcher at the Institute for Economics, Labour and Culture (IWAK) in Frankfurt am Main. Her research activities are focussed on migration, qualitative and quantitative empirical studies and regional forecasting systems.

Ben Kriechel is a researcher at the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) and a research fellow at the IZA in Bonn. His recent research is in the area of worker displacement, personnel economics, income distribution, and educational and occupational skills forecasting.

Prof. Dr. Alfons Schmid ist Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre und Direktor des Instituts für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Kultur (IWAK), Zentrum der Goethe-Universität Frankfurt. Forschungsschwerpunkte: regionale Beschäftigungsentwicklung und Arbeitsmarktpolitik, neue Kommunikationstechnologien und Beschäftigung, regionale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Einstellungen zum Sozialstaat, regionale Armuts- und Reichtumsforschung sowie regionale Prognosesysteme.

Product details

• Assisted by: Claudia Knobel (Editor), Ben Kriechel (Editor), Alfons Schmid (Editor)
• Publisher: Edition Rainer Hampp
• Languages: English
• Product format: Paperback / Softback
• Released: 14.01.2009
• EAN: 9783866183056
• ISBN: 978-3-86618-305-6
• No. of pages: 184
• Weight: 248 g
• Illustrations: 36 SW-Abb.
• Subject: Social sciences, law, business > Business > Economics