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Informationen zum Autor Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society. Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania. Klappentext This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behavior of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles, and extensive applications are presented. The authors focus on quantitative procedures for studying the growth and structure of populations, including measurement of fertility and mortality, population projection, and equilibrium models. The book also covers procedures for evaluating data quality and estimating demographic parameters when conventional data are deficient. It will provide a comprehensive introduction to demographic methods for all students and researchers in this subject. Zusammenfassung This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behaviour of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles and extensive applications are presented. Inhaltsverzeichnis List of Boxes viii List of Tables x List of Figures xii Preface xiv Acknowledgments xv 1 Basic Concepts and Measures 1 1.1 Meaning of "Population" 1 1.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change 2 1.3 The Structure of Demographic Rates 3 1.4 Period Rates and Person-years 5 1.5 Principal Period Rates in Demography 7 1.6 Growth Rates in Demography 8 1.7 Estimating Period Person-years 15 1.8 The Concept of a Cohort 16 1.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events 18 2 Age-specific Rates and Probabilities 21 2.1 Period Age-specific Rates 21 2.2 Age-standardization 24 2.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions 28 2.4 The Lexis Diagram 31 2.5 Age-specific Probabilities 32 2.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year 35 3 The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes 38 3.1 Period Life Tables 42 3.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of N a X Values And/or for Making The N M X ¿ N Q X Conversion 44 3.3 The Very Young Ages 47 3.4 The Open-ended Age Interval 48 3.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction 48 3.6 Interpreting the Life Table 51 3.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population 53 3.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process 59 3.9 Life Table Construction Revisited 61 3.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies 64 3.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes 65 Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation 69 4 Multiple Decrement Processes 71 4.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort 71 4.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods 73 4.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes 78 4.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Perio...
