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This book originates in a series of contributions to the 1983 Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the German Armed Forces University Munich. Under the topic "Quantita tive Approaches to Arms Control" that seminar attempted to review the present state-of-the-art of systems analysis and numerate meth ods in arms control. To this end, the editors invited a number of experts from Europe, the United St~tes and Canada to share and dis cuss their views and assessments with the faculty and upper class computer science students of the university as well as numerous guests from the defence community and the interested public. In three parts, this book presents a selection of partly re vised and somewhat extended versions of the seminar presentations followed, in most cases, by brief summaries of the transcripts of the respective discussions. In addition to an introduction by the editors, part I contains six papers on the present state and prob lems of arms control with emphasis on START (Strategic Arms Re duction Talks), INF (Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces negotia tions), and MBFR (Mutually Balanced Force Reduction talks). The seven contributions to part II are devoted to mathematical models of arms competition and quantitative approaches to force balance assessment of both, the static and dynamic variety. Part III pre sents five papers which address technical and operational aspects and legal implications of arms control negotiations and verifica tion.
List of contents
I State and Problems of Arms Control Today.- Arms Control and European Security: An Overview of START, INF, MBFR and CSCE/CDE.- German Views on Armaments Control Issues and Negotiation Approaches.- Strategic Arms Control and Military Security of Western Europe.- MBFR: Problems and Lessons.- Aspects of the MBFR Negotiations.- II Mathematical Models of Arms Build-Up and Quantitative Force Balance Assessment.- A Review of Richardson Models.- Empirical Validation of Richardson Models of Arms Races.- Analysis for Force Balance Assessment.- Arms Control and Quantitative Measures of the Strategic Balance.- Lessons and Problems of SALT; Perspective of START.- The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Decision-Making in Complex Environments.- Impact of Disarmament Nuclear Package Reductions.- III Legal Aspects, Verification, Negotiations.- Legal Aspects of Arms Control and Disarmament.- Proposals and Technology for Arms Control Verification - A Survey.- Verification of MBFR-Agreements - A System Analysis.- Soviet Violations of Existing Arms Control Treaties May Make Future Treaties Ineffective.- Information Management in Arms Control Negotiations.- About the Authors.
