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This is the first textbook to offer in one volume original simulations, exercises, and games designed by academics and intelligence professionals from several countries. These innovative methods are meant to enhance the learning experience and provide an international perspective to the topics and approaches discussed in class.
Intelligence simulations and games are presented in ready-to-run formats, from easy instructions to result-recordings matrices, to minimize preparation time for both instructors and students. Exercises, such as cyber-attack simulations, information sharing, ethical scenarios, and more, expose the student to the many subtle aspects of the intelligence enterprise through active role-playing in simulations and game exercises. The cases cover a wide range of key analytical issues and contexts with an international focus for an innovative text that will suit intelligence training courses at all levels.
List of contents
Introduction
William J. Lahneman and Rubén Arcos
Part 1. 1-2 Class Session Simulations
1. Estimating Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction
William J. Lahneman and Hugo A. Keesing
2. Competing Hypotheses in Contemporary Intelligence Analysis
Julian Richards
3. Facing Intelligence Analysts with ethical Scenarios
Fernando Velasco and Rubén Arcos
4. Spies and Lies: The Perils of Collection (A Simulation)
Kristan J. Wheaton and James Breckenridge
5. Learning Intelligence Analysis: The Development of Cognitive Strategies
Dan Mazare and Gabriel Sebe
6. Kim's Game: Developing Powers of Observation and Memory
William J. Lahneman
Part 2. 1-2 Week Simulations
7. Cyber Attack on the Office of Intelligence Production: A Collaborative Simulation
Randolph H. Pherson and Vaughn F. Bishop
8. Market and Competitor Analysis: Real Exercise
Luis Madureira
9. "Need to Share" Intelligence and Crisis Management in Fighting Terrorism and Organized Crime: the Need for Integrated Training Solutions
Gheorghe-Teodoru Stefan and Cristian Barna
10. A 3-D Intelligence Analysis on Migration as a Security Threat: From Data to Intelligence
Irena Dumitru and Ella Ciuperca
11. TEST Simulation Model: Team Working and Experiential Scenario-based Training
Chris Jagger and Julian Richards
Part 3. Multi-week Simulations
12. Understanding Baynesian Thinking: Prior and Posterior Probabilities and Analysis of Competing
Hypotheses in intelligence Analysis
Sir David Omand, GCB
13. Assessment BASE: Simulating National Intelligence Assessment in a Graduate Course
Philip H.J. Davies
14. Social Intelligence Survey: Mapping the Webs of embedded Intelligence Functions
Wilhelm Agrell and Tobbe Peterson
15. Multimedia Intelligence Products: Experiencing the Intelligence Production Process and Adding Layers of Information to Intelligence Reports
Rubén Arcos, Manuel Gértrudix & José Ignacio Prieto
About the author
William J. Lahneman is associate professor of homeland security at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida.
Rubén Arcos is professor of communication sciences at Rey Juan Carlos University (Madrid, Spain), professor and deputy director at the Centre for Intelligence Services and Democratic Systems, and coordinator of the MA Program in Intelligence Analysis.
