Read more
This monograph describes the results of a project to use mathematical modeling and computer simulations to analyze HIV transmission dynamics and AIDS in various risk groups in the USA. Because there is more data available on homosexual men in San Francisco, this population is analyzed intensively. The risk groups considered in fifteen subregions of the USA are homosexual men, injecting drug users (IDUs), homosexual IDUs, heterosexual partners of IDUs and children of female heterosexual partners and IDUs. A goal is to understand the AIDS epidemic in the USA by using a modeling approach to analyzing the data. This monograph contains data, graphs and computer program listings. Although mathematical models are used, this book does not require a mathematical background so it is accessible to epidemiologists, modelers, mathematicians, and students who are interested in the epidemiology of AIDS or in how modeling can contribute to the understanding of the transmission.
List of contents
1 Background on the Epidemiology and Modeling of HIV/AIDS.- 2 Modeling the Progression of HIV-Infected Persons to AIDS.- 3 Formulation of the Simulation Model for Homosexual Men.- 4 Mathematical Analysis of the Model for Homosexual Men.- 5 Homosexual Men in San Francisco: Estimation of Parameters and Incidences.- 6 Homosexual Men in San Francisco: Simulations and Sensitivity Analysis.- 7 The HIV Transmission Dynamics Model for Five Major Risk Groups.- 8 Weak Linkage between HIV Epidemics in Homosexual Men and Intravenous Drug Users in New York City.- 9 Racial/Ethnic Patterns of AIDS in the United States.- 10 Regional Comparisons of HIV and AIDS in Risk Groups.- Appendix: Listing of Computer Programs Used in Chapter 10.- References.
