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Zusatztext " A fascinating story of the early economic forecasting in the United States. . . . A pleasure to read and the narrative is both informative and insightful. I highly recommend it to both economists and non-economists. " ---Aris Spanos, Journal of the History of Economic Thought Informationen zum Autor Walter A. Friedman is a historian at Harvard Business School and the author of Birth of a Salesman: The Transformation of Selling in America . Klappentext The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters! pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future! with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers! men such as Roger Babson! Irving Fisher! John Moody! C. J. Bullock! and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses! and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet! almost to a man! they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Masterful and compelling! Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself. "Fortune Tellers tells the remarkable story of the first generation of economic forecasters in the United States. Like Robert Heilbroner's Worldly Philosophers, it combines biographical vignettes with intellectual history in an engaging narrative that documents the perilous relationship between professional expertise, economic theory, and cultural norms."--Richard R. John, author of Network Nation: Inventing American Telecommunications Zusammenfassung A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself. Inhaltsverzeichnis Preface ix Introduction 1 Chapter 1 Roger W. Babson: The Rule of Past Patterns 12 "The fundamental law of 'action reaction' " Chapter 2 Irving Fisher: The Economy as a Mathematical Model 51 "The velocity of money" Chapter 3 John Moody: The Bright Light of Transparency 86 "An aggregation of over 440 large industrial! franchise and transportation Trusts" Gallery of Business and Forecasting Charts Chapter 4 C. J. Bullock and Warren Persons: The Harvard ABC Chart 128 "The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe" Chapter 5 W...
